Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?
With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A number of questions relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in this story, China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion. So we ask:
When practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China?
For these purposes we define "practical" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no critical hard-to-replace components that would be radiation-damaged to inoperability in a matter of days or weeks, etc.) These are chosen to roughly match this question.
Resolves positively if the first such thing is in China; negatively if the first such thing is built elsewhere; ambiguous if no such thing is built by 2050.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.