13 comments
45 forecasters
If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?
25%chance
The community sees this as a toss-up.
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 28, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 30, 2021
If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?
84% chance
24
Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?
72% chance
27
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?
63% chance
41