24 forecasters

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%chance

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Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 30, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Nuclear Technology & Risks

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