5 comments
87 forecasters
If there's a fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2024, will the Metaculus community prediction on the question about that be >20% for a day during the week before the detonation?
50%chance
Annulled
The community gave this a 50% chance, and it resolved Annulled.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Nov 18, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 22, 2022