5 comments
87 forecasters
If there's a fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2024, will the Metaculus community prediction on the question about that be >20% for a day during the week before the detonation?
50%chance
Annulled
The community gave this a 50% chance, and it resolved Annulled.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Nov 18, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 22, 2022
At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?
75% chance
34
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
23 forecasters
Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?
72% chance
27