This tournament, and the associated Nuclear Risk Horizons Project, includes many questions about the fraction of nuclear detonations that would occur against particular target types and about which countries or target types would be struck first or at all. (Most of these questions condition on there being a nuclear conflict or on some more specific nuclear conflict scenario occurring.) This matters both for estimating total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for working out how best to reduce that risk.

This discussion post simply collects the relevant questions that have been released.

Questions on what target types would be struck first

• Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?

• Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on a city, if there's an offensive detonation by then?

Questions on whether particular target types would be struck at all

• Will there be an offensive nuclear detonation on a nation's capital by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere by 2024?

Questions on whether particular countries would be struck at all

• Will there be at least one fatality in the US from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2050, if an offensive detonation occurs anywhere?

• Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in China by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?

• Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in Pakistan by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?

• Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in India by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?

• Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in the US, UK, or France by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?

• Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in Russia by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?

• Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?

Questions on what fraction of detonations would be against what target types

• What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

• What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on towns/cities with >500 people per square kilometer?

• What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?

• What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by the US occurs?

• What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by China by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by China occurs?

• What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by Russia by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by Russia occurs?

• What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by India by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by India occurs?

• What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by Pakistan by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by Pakistan occurs?