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US Democracy Index

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What will be the total awarded grand-prize sum for XPRIZE Healthspan?

$052.4%

$61 million – 10 Year Functional Improvement18.8%

$71 million – 15 Year Functional Improvement14.9%

35 comments

104 forecasters

How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?

Current estimate

46.3 Deaths

Key Factors

10 comments

15 forecasters

What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2025-2026 season?

H1N153.3

H3N243.1

H5<0.1

12 comments

17 forecasters

What proportion of tested influenza sequences will CDC report as influenza A during the 2025-26 season through the end of April 2026?

Current estimate

85%

253 comments

1.6k forecasters

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

28%chance

Key Factors

2 comments

12 forecasters

Will tooth cavities rise in US states that have removed fluoride in water before 2031?

85%chance

5% this week

10 comments

9 forecasters

Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?

15%chance

374 comments

1.7k forecasters

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

1%chance

Key Factors

5 comments

43 forecasters

Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?

70%chance

4% this week

3 comments

14 forecasters

What will be the number of drug overdose deaths in the United States in the following years?

2028111k

2026109k