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US Democracy Index

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In the following years, will any U.S. state or the District of Columbia no longer have a previously existing anti-SLAPP law?

2 comments

12 forecasters

Will President Donald J. Trump take legal action against the BBC before 2026?

Trump files a lawsuit in the USA only55.2%

Trump does not file a lawsuit in the USA or the UK31.5%

Trump files a lawsuit in the UK only7.8%

2 comments

25 forecasters

Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?

33%chance

13% this week

0 comments

41 forecasters

Will Ghislaine Maxwell give oral testimony on the Epstein Files or Epstein's relationship with Trump in a hearing at the US Congress before 2026?

0.7%chance

6 comments

27 forecasters

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Donald Trump's second presidency?

42%chance

Key Factors

1 comment

36 forecasters

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana’s two majority-Black districts, restoring a GOP-leaning map?

81%chance

Key Factors

4 comments

36 forecasters

Will the US Department of Education be dissolved before Jan. 20, 2029?

21%chance

18 comments

106 forecasters

How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?

No 2025 ruling60%

Mixed ruling20%

Tariffs unlawful10.9%

Key Factors

6 comments

127 forecasters

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

1%chance

3 comments

25 forecasters

Will Israel Take Control of Gaza City before Jan 20, 2029?

14%chance

Key Factors