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US Democracy Index

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Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case that could end the constitutional right to same-sex marriage?

10%chance

40% this week

18 comments

100 forecasters

How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?

No 2025 ruling61.8%

Mixed ruling19.2%

Tariffs unlawful10.1%

Key Factors

0 comments

41 forecasters

Will Ghislaine Maxwell give oral testimony on the Epstein Files or Epstein's relationship with Trump in a hearing at the US Congress before 2026?

0.6%chance

46 comments

233 forecasters

Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?

8%chance

Key Factors

1 comment

23 forecasters

Will any of these 8 pieces of jewelry stolen in the 2025 Louvre heist be recovered before December 1, 2025?

4%chance

6% this week

Key Factors

52 comments

1.3k forecasters

Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?

3%chance

2% this week

Key Factors

20 comments

105 forecasters

Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?

85%chance

Key Factors

6 comments

27 forecasters

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Donald Trump's second presidency?

42%chance

Key Factors

11 comments

65 forecasters

Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?

29%chance

7% this week

Key Factors

1 comment

34 forecasters

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?

81%chance

Key Factors