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Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?

Key Factor

Besigye's health concerns may influence his bail chance

12%chance
8% this week

Key Factor

Besigye's health concerns may influence his bail chance

Will assisted dying for terminally ill adults be legal for the majority of United Kingdom residents before 2030?

70%chance
28% this week

Will Donald Trump file a lawsuit against Elon Musk for defamation before August 1, 2025?

1.5%chance
1.5% this week

Will the US government take control of any US AI company or project before 2029?

20%chance
10% this week

Will the United States government have formal veto power on the deployment of frontier AI before 2028?

10%chance
3% this week

Contributed by the Dorsal Heart's Community Page community.

Will a second US city ban factory farming within its boundaries by the end of 2025?

10%chance

Will the Trump administration announce a suspension of habeas corpus before January 20, 2029?

17%chance
5% this week

When in 2025 will President Donald Trump sign into a law a reconciliation bill?

July - August64.8%
September - October24.6%
November - December4.9%
and 2 others

Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?

56%chance

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell before January 15, 2026?

62%chance