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US Democracy Index

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How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?

No 2025 ruling61.2%

Mixed ruling19.7%

Tariffs unlawful9.9%

Key Factors

1 comment

22 forecasters

Will any of these 8 pieces of jewelry stolen in the 2025 Louvre heist be recovered before December 1, 2025?

10%chance

10% this week

Key Factors

3 comments

63 forecasters

Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?

50%chance

22% this week

1 comment

32 forecasters

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?

81%chance

6% this week

Key Factors

11 comments

62 forecasters

Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?

36%chance

Key Factors

14 comments

379 forecasters

How many journalists in the US will face criminal charges related to their work before 2027?

Current estimate

61.5 journalists

45 comments

233 forecasters

Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?

10%chance

Key Factors

4 comments

96 forecasters

Will the DOJ officially remove the requirement for U.S. attorneys to consult with the Public Integrity Section before prosecuting lawmakers before November 4, 2026?

61%chance

3 comments

23 forecasters

Will Brazil ban the 6x1 work schedule before 1 January 2026?

1%chance

4% this week

0 comments

26 forecasters

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Kim Davis v. David Ermold et al before January 15, 2026?

35%chance