Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

US Democracy Index

AI Forecasting Benchmark

POTUS Predictions

categories

Health & Pandemics

Environment & Climate

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Artificial Intelligence

See all categories

41 forecasters

Will Ghislaine Maxwell give oral testimony on the Epstein Files or Epstein's relationship with Trump in a hearing at the US Congress before 2026?

0.7%chance

101 forecasters

How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?

No 2025 ruling61.4%

Mixed ruling20.1%

Tariffs unlawful10%

Key Factors

24 forecasters

Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?

30%chance

10% this week

8 forecasters

In the following years, will any U.S. state or the District of Columbia no longer have a previously existing anti-SLAPP law?

233 forecasters

Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?

7.5%chance

Key Factors

15 forecasters

Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case that could end the constitutional right to same-sex marriage?

10%chance

1.3k forecasters

Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?

2%chance

3% this week

Key Factors

106 forecasters

Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?

87%chance

Key Factors

34 forecasters

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?

81%chance

Key Factors

88 forecasters

Will former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol be convicted of any criminal charges before January 16, 2026?

5%chance

3% this week

Key Factors