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US Democracy Index

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Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?

18%chance

12% this week

11 comments

117 forecasters

Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?

95%chance

12 comments

92 forecasters

When will most Americans personally know someone who has dated an AI?

Current estimate

Oct 2032

14 comments

57 forecasters

Before 2031, will a G7 country have an active, publicly-funded UBI pilot program covering at least 25,000 people?

25%chance

Key Factors

254 comments

1.6k forecasters

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

25%chance

Key Factors

6 comments

77 forecasters

Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?

6.5%chance

76 comments

168 forecasters

What will be China's total fertility rate in 2031?

Current estimate

1.07 births/woman

2 comments

9 forecasters

What will the US population be in these years, in millions?

15 comments

8 forecasters

How many congressional seats will California lose as a result of the 2030 census?

140%

234.8%

≥334.2%

6 comments

33 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?

Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?

When will most Americans personally know someone who has dated an AI?

Before 2031, will a G7 country have an active, publicly-funded UBI pilot program covering at least 25,000 people?

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?

What will be China's total fertility rate in 2031?

What will the US population be in these years, in millions?

How many congressional seats will California lose as a result of the 2030 census?

What will be the world population in the following years?

Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?

Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?

When will most Americans personally know someone who has dated an AI?

Before 2031, will a G7 country have an active, publicly-funded UBI pilot program covering at least 25,000 people?

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?

What will be China's total fertility rate in 2031?

What will the US population be in these years, in millions?

How many congressional seats will California lose as a result of the 2030 census?

What will be the world population in the following years?