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Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

Key Factor

Up to 50% of all variation in lifespan may be due to genetic factors, indicating a significant but not exclusive role of genetics in determining longevity.

Before 2031, will a G7 country have an active, publicly-funded UBI pilot program covering at least 25,000 people?

33%chance

10% this week

Key Factor

Past UBI trials show mental health benefits

Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?

5%chance

10% this week

Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?

91%chance

16% this week

How many incidents of unruly passengers will the FAA report for September 2025?

154

incidents

→←2.6 incidents this week

What will be the average number of hours per day spent on the following activities by the US population in 2029 according to the American Time Use Survey?

Leisure and sports5.46

Working and work-related activities3.31

What will be China's total fertility rate in 2031?

1.1

births/woman

Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?

10%chance

5% this week

Will any HHS study claim to show evidence of a link between vaccines and autism before January 21, 2029?

11%chance

When will any national government, international organization, or supranational body formally acknowledge the moral patienthood of an AI system?

>Jan 2031