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2 comments
13 forecasters

Will George Santos receive a pardon or commutation?

40%chance
6.7% this week
54 comments
283 forecasters

Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?

52%chance
21 comments
154 forecasters

Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?

17%chance
12 comments
92 forecasters

When will most Americans personally know someone who has dated an AI?

Current estimate
Feb 2033
251 comments
1.6k forecasters

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

28%chance
4 comments
31 forecasters

What will be the average number of hours per day spent on the following activities by the US population in 2029 according to the American Time Use Survey?

Leisure and sports5.34
Working and work-related activities3.25
0 comments
155 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?

35%chance
14 comments
53 forecasters

Before 2031, will a G7 country have an active, publicly-funded UBI pilot program covering at least 25,000 people?

24%chance
4% this week
1 comment
16 forecasters

Will the ceasefire between the U.S. and Yemen’s Houthis mediated by Oman be broken before June 2026?

51%chance
6% this week
11 comments
116 forecasters

Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?

93%chance