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Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?

Key Factor

Summer weather prolongs protest activities

31%chance
9% this week

Key Factor

Summer weather prolongs protest activities

When will most Americans personally know someone who has dated an AI?

Sep 2032

What will China's total population be in these years?

Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?

65%chance

Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?

1%chance

Will George Santos receive a pardon or commutation?

37%chance
6% this week

Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?

resultNo

When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?

Oct 2034

What will be the largest customer base of a single romantic AI companion before 2025?

Ambiguous

When will any type of dog have a life expectancy at birth of 30 years or more?

Aug 2073