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US Democracy Index

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What will the annual real GDP growth rate be in the eurozone in the following years?

64 comments

27 forecasters

What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months?

29 comments

45 forecasters

Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise?

20305%

20261%

2023result: No

127 comments

126 forecasters

Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates?

20302%

2025result: No

2024result: No

11 comments

43 forecasters

When will an agentized-LLM system like Auto-GPT be first reported to have been used to do significant real-world harm?

Latest estimate

05 May 2024

This question is closed for forecasting.

13 comments

25 forecasters

What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD?

7 comments

31 forecasters

What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years?

3 comments

28 forecasters

What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in California in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles?

3 comments

26 forecasters

How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year?

9 comments

27 forecasters

What will the annual real GDP growth rate be in the eurozone in the following years?

What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months?

Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise?

Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates?

When will an agentized-LLM system like Auto-GPT be first reported to have been used to do significant real-world harm?

What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD?

What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years?

What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in California in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles?

How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year?

Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years?

What will the annual real GDP growth rate be in the eurozone in the following years?

What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months?

Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise?

Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates?

When will an agentized-LLM system like Auto-GPT be first reported to have been used to do significant real-world harm?

What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD?

What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years?

What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in California in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles?

How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year?

Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years?