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Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win56.6%
Nathan Young win33.6%
Other9.8%

Q1 AI Benchmarking Results: Pros Crush Bots

14
3 comments3
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Important Updates to Prediction Auto-withdrawal

7
58 comments58

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

Key Factor

Flexibility of video appearances increases likelihood

22%chance
48% this week

Key Factor

Flexibility of video appearances increases likelihood

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

38%chance
15% this week

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

92%chance
27% this week

Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?

30%chance
5% today

Platform feature suggestions

112
2942 comments2942
Metaculus Meta

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

40%chance
27% this week

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

73%chance
4% this week