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Will a U.S. federal agency announce new or expanded model evaluation agreements with both OpenAI and Anthropic before September 3, 2026?

15% chance

57

57 forecasters

15%chance

Will at least one paper published in Nature, Science, or Cell list an AI system as a formally credited author before January 1, 2030?

1

1 forecaster

%chance

Will OpenAI or Hugging Face publish a completed technical report on the July 2026 breach investigation before August 7, 2026?

result: no

140

140 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: July 2026 Updates

7

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

30 Aug 2028 (14 Jan 2027 - May 2032)

224

628 628 comments

1.8k

1.8k forecasters

30 Aug 2028

(14 Jan 2027 - May 2032)

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

6

6 forecasters

Will Germany, Italy, and Australia establish dedicated AI Safety Institutes before 2027?

1

23

23 forecasters

How long will the employee lockup period be after OpenAI's IPO?

1

4

4 forecasters

AI Military Disempowerment Pro Discussion

When will an AI gain unauthorized access to systems outside its designated environment?

19 Mar 2027 (13 Aug 2026 09:42 - 06 May 2028)

2

20

20 forecasters

19 Mar 2027

(13 Aug 2026 09:42 - 06 May 2028)

Which model will rank #1 on the LMArena Text leaderboard on July 12, 2026?

116 116 comments

115

115 forecasters

Will OpenAI make GPT-5.6 generally available before July 12, 2026?

result: yes

116 116 comments

116

116 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Got Opinions on AI & Labor? The Labor Automation Tournament Comment Prize Deadline is September 1.

4

Will a bot finish in the top 5 of the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?

97% chance

22

22 forecasters

97%chance

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

8

63

63 forecasters

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?

9

14

14 forecasters

Will OpenAI either have a valuation of less than $200bn USD or have filed for bankruptcy before January 1, 2028?

1.6% chance

2

11

11 forecasters

1.6%chance

Will OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser be released for Windows before September 1, 2026?

2% chance

-6

127

127 forecasters

2%chance

When will OpenAI IPO?

20 Apr 2027 (21 Jan 2027 - 28 Jul 2027)

7

7 forecasters

20 Apr 2027

(21 Jan 2027 - 28 Jul 2027)

Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

9

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?

10% chance

2

18

18 forecasters

10%chance

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

98% chance

33

177

177 forecasters

98%chance