Will OpenAI publicly release or announce a new GPT model on October 15 or 16, 2026?12% chance0 comments244244 forecasters12%chance
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?132121 comments9393 forecasters
When will ChatGPT Dots become available to ChatGPT Pro subscribers in the EEA?02 Feb 2027 (04 Dec 2026 - 20 May 2027)33 comments44 forecasters02 Feb 2027 (04 Dec 2026 - 20 May 2027)
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?01 Sep 2027 (18 Sep 2026 - 16 Dec 2029)224676676 comments1.8k1.8k forecasters01 Sep 2027 (18 Sep 2026 - 16 Dec 2029)
Which AI lab's model will rank #1 on the LMArena Text Arena overall leaderboard on October 1, 2026?174174 comments180180 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?45222222 comments331331 forecasters
Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?70% chance33 comments77 forecasters70%chance
Which company will hold the #1 rank on the LMArena Text Arena leaderboard on September 17, 2026?148148 comments158158 forecasters
Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?31% chance11212 comments9292 forecasters31%chance
How many months behind the frontier will the best Chinese open-weights AI model be at the end of 2028?8.32 months (6.63 - 10.4)0 comments55 forecasters8.32 months (6.63 - 10.4)
Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?99.9% chance397272 comments420420 forecasters99.9%chance
Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?11111 comments120120 forecasters
When will an artificial intelligence achieve the main ending of "The Talos Principle" without being explicitly told about this goal?07 Aug 2031 (20 Dec 2029 - Dec 2034)388 comments1111 forecasters07 Aug 2031 (20 Dec 2029 - Dec 2034)
Will any US federal or state government entity sue OpenAI over the July 2026 Hugging Face incident before July 2027?21% chance77 comments3030 forecasters21%chance
Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?10% chance599 comments115115 forecasters10%chance
Will an open weight AI model achieve Mythos-level cyber capabilities before July 2027?95% chance1010 comments4545 forecasters95%chance