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US Democracy Index

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Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

3 comments

1 forecaster

Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 3 days

0 comments

106 forecasters

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

14.8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

Latest estimate

6.33 labs

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

91 forecasters

Will the interest in “openai” change between 2025-10-29 and 2025-11-07 according to Google Trends?

Doesn't change55%

Increases25.6%

Decreases19.4%

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

107 forecasters

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

2 comments

4 forecasters

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?

21%chance

2 comments

4 forecasters

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?

85%chance

1 comment

2 forecasters

Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters before 2027?

49%chance

38 comments

37 forecasters

Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?

resultNo