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US Democracy Index

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Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?

8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (C3.ai)

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

97 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Google DeepMind)

20%chance

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0 comments

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Hugging Face)

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

91 comments

91 forecasters

Will the interest in “openai” change between 2025-10-29 and 2025-11-07 according to Google Trends?

Decreasesresult: Yes

Doesn't change55%

Increases25.6%

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

6 6 comments

AI Pathways Tournament

0 comments

106 forecasters

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

14.8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

107 forecasters

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

3 comments

6 forecasters

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?

21%chance

14% this week