• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
💎
Metaculus Cup
📈
Market Pulse Challenge
⚡
Current Events
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
🌍✨
AI Pathways Tournament
☀️
Bright Line Watch
🇹🇼🇨🇳
The Taiwan Tinderbox
🔮
Vox's Future Perfect
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

3
no comments0
condition

CTs Deep Learning Revenue

16 forecasters
if yes
if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

7%
7%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

1%
1%
1
1 comment1
Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?

15%chance
60% this week

Will the community prediction be higher than 98.00% on 2025-08-25 for the Metaculus question 'Will OpenAI surpass 15 million business users before 2030?'?

resultYes

In which year will AI infrastructure account for 10% or more of global electricity consumption?

Not before 203174.6%
2029 or 203019.9%
2027 or 20285.3%
and 1 other

Join Foresight’s AI Pathways Tournament: $5,000 Comment Prize

8
2 comments2
AI Pathways Tournament

When will OpenAI release GPT-6?

12 Mar 2027
6.4 weeks this week

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

May 2033
4.2 years this week

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Metaculus AI Forecasting Benchmark Resources Page

2
5 comments5

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH20%
Google Cloud15%
Amazon Web Services15%
and 1 other