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3 comments
40 forecasters

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

Alphabet36%
OpenAI23.1%
Other16.1%
24 comments
121 forecasters

Will OpenAI claim GPT-5 is AGI within 30 days after its release?

resultNo
0 comments
100 forecasters

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

627 comments
1.8k forecasters

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
Aug 2033
0 comments
31 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%
Google Cloud14.2%
Microsoft Azure14%
7 comments
130 forecasters

Which year will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic first reach a valuation of at least $1 trillion?

202636.3%
202731%
202813.9%

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

3 comments
12 forecasters

What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate
75.3%
2 comments
39 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%
2 comments
115 forecasters

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?

33%chance
18% this week

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

0 comments
11 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?

33.3%chance
16.7% this week