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$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
22 comments
AI Pathways Tournament
89 comments
84 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 45.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question "Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?"?

resultYes

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

4
0 comments

Contributed by the Brown University Forecasting Team community.

0 comments
7 forecasters

Will OpenAI release o4 or o5-mini/o5-mini-high by September 1, 2025?

resultNo

Contributed by the JetBrains community.

0 comments
3 forecasters

For these benchmarks, what percentage of problems do you estimate the top-performing AI model or agent will be able to solve by December'25?

AI2 Reasoning Challenge97.9
Toloka's µ-MATH94.1
Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A90.8
0 comments
37 forecasters

Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?

28%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

14 comments
85 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind13%
Microsoft5%
xAI3%
0 comments
29 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH16%
Microsoft Azure14%
Google Cloud12%

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

0 comments
12 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?

30%chance
20% this week
1 comment
49 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 98.00% on 2025-08-25 for the Metaculus question 'Will OpenAI surpass 15 million business users before 2030?'?

resultYes