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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Key Factor

New Chinese landing barges

Key Factor

New Chinese landing barges

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

52%chance

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

20%chance

Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years?

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

69%chance

Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?

4%chance

Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?

1%chance
1% this week

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

15%chance
condition

China Disavows Force in Taiwan Reunification?

12 forecasters
if yes
if no

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)

25%
25%

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)

40%
40%
1
3 comments3
The Taiwan Tinderbox

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

55%chance