Will Generative AI become part of most Americans' daily lives before 2030?90% chance1010 comments3535 forecasters90%chance
How many weeks of unemployment benefits will be paid in Vermont on average in each month of 2029?25.6k weeks (16.6k - 39.5k)122 comments22 forecasters25.6k weeks (16.6k - 39.5k)
Will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release an AI model to the public in 2026?66 comments6565 forecasters%chance
What global growth rate for 2026 will the IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook project?3% (2.9 - 3.1)226226 comments224224 forecastersResolved3.1%
Will a representative survey in a G20 country find, before 2050, that a majority of adults believe AI has subjective experience?70% chance111 comment1212 forecasters70%chance
Which AI lab's model will rank #1 on the LMArena Text Arena overall leaderboard on October 1, 2026?174174 comments180180 forecasters
Will an AI system autonomously cause a major breach of US personal data held by an organization other than its operator before 2028?60% chance22222 comments5858 forecasters60%chance
What will India's June–September 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall be, as a percentage of the Long Period Average, per IMD?85 % of LPA (84 - 86)167167 comments171171 forecastersResolved87 % of LPA
What will be the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States in the following years using May 2023 dollars?277 comments1010 forecasters
Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?11111 comments120120 forecasters
Which company will hold the #1 rank on the LMArena Text Arena leaderboard on September 17, 2026?148148 comments158158 forecasters
What will the top score on the ARC Prize 2026 – ARC-AGI-3 Kaggle public leaderboard be on September 17, 2026?10.2% (8.17 - 13.8)137137 comments143143 forecastersResolved18.81%
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?45222222 comments332332 forecasters
How many software developers will there be in the US in the following years?1088 comments1313 forecasters
How many weeks of unemployment benefits will be paid in Maine on average in each month of 2029?42k weeks (29.8k - 65.6k)155 comments33 forecasters42k weeks (29.8k - 65.6k)
Before 2035, will the major science funding agencies NIH and NSF require formal reporting of AI involvement in research outputs as a condition of funding?85% chance144 comments109109 forecasters85%chance