How many of the top 5 models on the LMArena Text Arena leaderboard will be Anthropic models on August 20, 2026?3 models (2 - 4)11 comment143143 forecastersResolved4 models
What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in these years vs 2025, conditional on AI funding stagnation?12323 comments2828 forecasters
What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in these years vs 2025, conditional on AI benchmark stagnation?1616 comments3535 forecasters
By December 31st, 2028, will it be considered best practice in clinical psychology to incorporate AI tools in the diagnostic process?20% chance255 comments5151 forecasters20%chance
Will a U.S. federal agency announce new or expanded model evaluation agreements with both OpenAI and Anthropic before September 3, 2026?3% chance188 comments7272 forecasters3%chance
Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?55% chance244 comments6464 forecasters55%chance
Will international enrolled graduate students in the US see a greater percentage decrease (or smaller increase) in Trump's first year compared to undergraduates?66.7% chance10 comments1515 forecasters66.7%chance
Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?24.9% chance34040 comments924924 forecasters24.9%chance
What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?899 comments8080 forecasters
Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?50% chance522 comments3434 forecasters50%chance
What will PAHO report as the cumulative confirmed measles case count for the Region of the Americas in 2026, in its most recent situation report available on August 21, 2026?Annulled11 comment9292 forecastersAnnulled
Will Germany, Italy, and Australia establish dedicated AI Safety Institutes before 2027?11212 comments2323 forecasters
What will be the maximum weekly new hospital admissions per 100,000 for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2026/27 season?133 comments77 forecasters
What proportion of influenza A will be H1N1 during the 2026/27 influenza season?32% (13.6 - 61.5)133 comments77 forecasters32% (13.6 - 61.5)
How will Bright Line Watch experts rate US democracy on a 0-100 scale at the end of the following years?166 comments9090 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?41173173 comments281281 forecasters
What will be the mean of the top 10 scores on the Metaculus 2026 Peer Accuracy leaderboard?40.3 points (38.2 - 42.3)-122 comments77 forecasters40.3 points (38.2 - 42.3)
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?30% chance384444 comments471471 forecasters30%chance
Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?98% chance51616 comments212212 forecasters98%chance
When will a global sensing system be operational that enables real-time, 3D atmospheric tomography at a resolution sufficient to model small-scale convective processes?2032 (2030 - 2036)30 comments99 forecasters2032 (2030 - 2036)