4 comments
1 forecaster
How much will using AI add to (or subtract from) the time it takes developers to do a task, in METR's second impact study?
Current estimate
Revealed in 2 days
0 comments
95 forecasters
Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?
Current estimate
Revealed in 38 minutes
26 comments
66 forecasters
What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?
Current estimate
0.84 °C
Key Factors
0 comments
8 forecasters
How many countries from the list below will establish space agencies or dedicated space programs specifically focused on addressing climate change and sustainable development before 2026?
Current estimate
0.987 countries
13 comments
16 forecasters
What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2025-2026 season?
H3N268.8
H1N136
H5<0.1
0 comments
107 forecasters
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
15%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
3 comments
5 forecasters
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?
7%chance
14% this week
17 comments
22 forecasters
What will be the CDC's In-Season Flu Severity Assessment for 2025-2026?
Moderate58.8%
High27.9%
Low (or lower)10%