0 comments
100 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (C3.ai)
5%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
86 forecasters
Will the 2025 North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) be at least 110.0 units by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025?
63.5%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
4 comments
5 forecasters
How many nations will be net zero emissions on January 1st 2035?
Current estimate
2.93 Nations
4 comments
3 forecasters
How much will using AI add to (or subtract from) the time it takes developers to do a task, in METR's second impact study?
Current estimate
2.28%
15 comments
16 forecasters
What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2025-2026 season?
H3N281.8
H1N120.4
H5<0.1
3 comments
6 forecasters
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?
21%chance
14% this week
0 comments
107 forecasters
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
15%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
2 forecasters
Will processors based on the RISC-V architecture account for at least 30% of global processor unit shipments in the calendar year 2030?
80%chance
20% this week