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Will AI Daily's "AI Support" among American adults turn negative before 2027?

64% chance

1

6

6 forecasters

64%chance

What will be the highest score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on August 31, 2026?

105 105 comments

109

109 forecasters

What will be the highest scores in these ΑΙ benchmarks before September 2026?

4

143

143 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

8

66

66 forecasters

Will any of these AI companies be nationalized before Jan 1st 2030?

3

3 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

40

173 173 comments

279

279 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?

98% chance

3

6

6 forecasters

Annulled

How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?

2

34

34 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

98% chance

23

143

143 forecasters

98%chance

What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?

16

81

81 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

25% chance

37

469

469 forecasters

25%chance

By December 31st, 2028, will it be considered best practice in clinical psychology to incorporate AI tools in the diagnostic process?

49% chance

2

50

50 forecasters

49%chance

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

71% chance

6

71

71 forecasters

71%chance

In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?

result: no

4

16

16 forecasters

ResolvedNo

What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?

19

104

104 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30% chance

24

327

327 forecasters

30%chance

Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?

11% chance

4

50

50 forecasters

11%chance

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

9

41

41 forecasters

CTs AI Admin Disempowerment Before 2030 → CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

4

18

18 forecasters

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

Feb 2051 (Oct 2034 - 2109)

17

73

73 forecasters

Feb 2051

(Oct 2034 - 2109)

How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?

1.11 years (1.03 - 1.85)

6

43

43 forecasters

1.11 years

(1.03 - 1.85)

When will concern about artificial intelligence go mainstream in the United States?

18 Dec 2027 (30 Jan 2027 - 20 Nov 2029)

12

83

83 forecasters

18 Dec 2027

(30 Jan 2027 - 20 Nov 2029)