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When will an agentized-LLM system like Auto-GPT be first reported to have been used to do significant real-world harm?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

05 May 2024
condition

Legislation Limiting LLMs Introduced?

Resolved:No
13 forecasters
if yes
if no

When will GPT5 be announced?

17 Nov 2025
Resolved:Annulled

When will GPT5 be announced?

22 Jan 2025
Resolved:07 Aug 2025
4
no comments0

Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?

OpenAI GPT-4, not optionalresult: No
Anthropic AI Claude, not optionalresult: No
OpenAI GPT-4, optionalresult: No
and 3 others

Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?

resultYes

Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?

resultNo

Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities?

Anthropicresult: No
OpenAIresult: No
Google DeepMindresult: No

Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?

resultYes

Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?

resultNo

Contributed by the Nathan Young's Community community.

What is the top MMLU score on the following dates?

condition

LLM passes ARA before 2025?

Resolved:No
28 forecasters
if yes
if no

LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)

3%
3%
Resolved:Annulled

LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)

1%
1%
Resolved:No
5
1 comment1
Conditional Cup