Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?622 comments3131 forecasters
Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?result: no92020 comments9393 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?result: no162121 comments132132 forecastersResolvedNo
What percentage of developers in 2026 will believe that AI will eventually fully replace human developers?18% (14 - 22)-31010 comments143143 forecasters18% (14 - 22)
What percentage of the US workforce will be in computer specialist roles in 2050?1.1% (0.377 - 3.29)1366 comments2222 forecasters1.1% (0.377 - 3.29)
Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?50% chance966 comments3434 forecasters50%chance
When will large language models exceed superforecasters’ accuracy in ForecastBench?09 Feb 2028 (12 Apr 2027 - Aug 2031)55 comments1111 forecasters09 Feb 2028 (12 Apr 2027 - Aug 2031)
LLM passes ARA before 2025? → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)511 comment2828 forecasters
Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?result: yes92626 comments479479 forecastersResolvedYes
When will LLaMA-3 be released?23 Apr 2024 01:22 (10 Apr 2024 - 07 May 2024)577 comments1919 forecasters23 Apr 2024 01:22 (10 Apr 2024 - 07 May 2024)
Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?result: no151414 comments103103 forecastersResolvedNo
Agentized LLM Improves self by July 1, 2023? → When will agentized-LLMs first cause harm?40 comments1515 forecasters