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3 comments
7 forecasters

When will large language models exceed superforecasters’ accuracy in ForecastBench?

Current estimate
13 Jan 2027

Another Year of AI Benchmarking: The Plan

11
0 comments
Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
11 comments
43 forecasters

When will an agentized-LLM system like Auto-GPT be first reported to have been used to do significant real-world harm?

Latest estimate
05 May 2024

This question is closed for forecasting.

2 comments
31 forecasters

Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?

OpenAI GPT-4, not optionalresult: No
Anthropic AI Claude, not optionalresult: No
OpenAI GPT-4, optionalresult: No
7 comments
68 forecasters

When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?

Current estimate
11 Aug 2026
6 comments
33 forecasters

Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?

55%chance

Contributed by the Nathan Young's Community community.

0 comments

What is the top MMLU score on the following dates?

2025 Q2Upcoming
2025 Q3Upcoming
2025 Q4Upcoming
condition

LLM passes ARA before 2025?

Resolved:No
28 forecasters
if yes
if no

LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)

3%
3%
Resolved:Annulled

LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)

1%
1%
Resolved:No
5
11 comment
28
28 forecasters
Conditional Cup
16 comments
39 forecasters

Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?

resultNo
26 comments
479 forecasters

Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?

resultYes