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3
comments
7
forecasters
When will large language models exceed superforecasters’ accuracy in ForecastBench?
Current estimate
13 Jan 2027
Another Year of AI Benchmarking: The Plan
11
0
comments
Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
11
comments
43
forecasters
When will an agentized-LLM system like Auto-GPT be first reported to have been used to do significant real-world harm?
Latest estimate
05 May 2024
This question is closed for forecasting.
2
comments
31
forecasters
Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?
OpenAI GPT-4, not optional
result:
No
Anthropic AI Claude, not optional
result:
No
OpenAI GPT-4, optional
result:
No
3 others
7
comments
68
forecasters
When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?
Current estimate
11 Aug 2026
6
comments
33
forecasters
Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?
55%
chance
Contributed by the
Nathan Young's Community
community.
0
comments
What is the top MMLU score on the following dates?
2025 Q2
Upcoming
2025 Q3
Upcoming
2025 Q4
Upcoming
9 others
condition
LLM passes ARA before 2025?
Resolved:
No
28
forecasters
if yes
if no
LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)
3%
3%
Resolved:
Annulled
LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)
1%
1%
Resolved:
No
5
1
1
comment
28
28
forecasters
Conditional Cup
16
comments
39
forecasters
Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?
result
No
26
comments
479
forecasters
Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?
result
Yes
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