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When will an agentized-LLM system like Auto-GPT be first reported to have been used to do significant real-world harm?

05 May 2024 (30 Nov 2023 - 13 Jan 2025)

Resolved18 Mar 2025 16:00 UTC

Agentized LLM Improves self by July 1, 2023? → When will agentized-LLMs first cause harm?

Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?

When will large language models exceed superforecasters’ accuracy in ForecastBench?

09 Feb 2028 (12 Apr 2027 - 22 Aug 2031)

09 Feb 2028

(12 Apr 2027 - 22 Aug 2031)

Before 2035, will the major science funding agencies NIH and NSF require formal reporting of AI involvement in research outputs as a condition of funding?

77% chance

77%chance

What is the top MMLU score on the following dates?

LLM passes ARA before 2025? → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)

Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?

result: no

ResolvedNo

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

result: no

132

ResolvedNo

Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?

result: yes

479

ResolvedYes

When will LLaMA-3 be released?

23 Apr 2024 01:22 (10 Apr 2024 - 07 May 2024)

Resolved18 Apr 2024 10:30 UTC

Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?

result: no

103

ResolvedNo

Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?

result: no

ResolvedNo

What percentage of the US workforce will be in computer specialist roles in 2050?

1.04% (0.36 - 3.18)

1.04%

(0.36 - 3.18)

When will an agentized-LLM system like Auto-GPT be first reported to have been used to do significant real-world harm?

Agentized LLM Improves self by July 1, 2023? → When will agentized-LLMs first cause harm?

Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?

When will large language models exceed superforecasters’ accuracy in ForecastBench?

Before 2035, will the major science funding agencies NIH and NSF require formal reporting of AI involvement in research outputs as a condition of funding?

What is the top MMLU score on the following dates?

LLM passes ARA before 2025? → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)

Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?

When will LLaMA-3 be released?

Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?

Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?

What percentage of the US workforce will be in computer specialist roles in 2050?

The Role of Special Tokens in LLMs

Streamlined, LLM-Enhanced Question Discovery

When will an agentized-LLM system like Auto-GPT be first reported to have been used to do significant real-world harm?

Agentized LLM Improves self by July 1, 2023? → When will agentized-LLMs first cause harm?

Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?

When will large language models exceed superforecasters’ accuracy in ForecastBench?

Before 2035, will the major science funding agencies NIH and NSF require formal reporting of AI involvement in research outputs as a condition of funding?

What is the top MMLU score on the following dates?

LLM passes ARA before 2025? → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)

Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?

When will LLaMA-3 be released?

Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?

Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?

What percentage of the US workforce will be in computer specialist roles in 2050?

The Role of Special Tokens in LLMs

Streamlined, LLM-Enhanced Question Discovery