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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?

resultNo

Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?

resultYes

Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?

resultNo

Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?

60%chance
condition

Agentized LLM Improves self by July 1, 2023?

Resolved:No
15 forecasters
if yes
if no

When will agentized-LLMs first cause harm?

09 Mar 2024
Resolved:Annulled

When will agentized-LLMs first cause harm?

11 May 2024
4
no comments0
condition

Legislation Limiting LLMs Introduced?

Resolved:No
13 forecasters
if yes
if no

When will GPT5 be announced?

17 Nov 2025
Resolved:Annulled

When will GPT5 be announced?

22 Jan 2025
4
no comments0

Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?

resultNo

Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?

resultYes

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

resultNo

Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?

resultNo