Question Feed | Metaculus

Before 2035, will the major science funding agencies NIH and NSF require formal reporting of AI involvement in research outputs as a condition of funding?

85% chance

116

85%chance

Streamlined, LLM-Enhanced Question Discovery

Agentized LLM Improves self by July 1, 2023? → When will agentized-LLMs first cause harm?

When will large language models exceed superforecasters’ accuracy in ForecastBench?

26 Jun 2027 (08 Jan 2027 - 20 Apr 2030)

26 Jun 2027

(08 Jan 2027 - 20 Apr 2030)

What is the top MMLU score on the following dates?

LLM passes ARA before 2025? → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)

Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?

result: no

ResolvedNo

Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?

Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?

result: yes

479

ResolvedYes

When will LLaMA-3 be released?

23 Apr 2024 01:22 (10 Apr 2024 - 07 May 2024)

Resolved18 Apr 2024 10:30 UTC

Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?

result: no

103

ResolvedNo

Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?

result: no

ResolvedNo

What percentage of the US workforce will be in computer specialist roles in 2050?

1.03% (0.282 - 3.46)

1.03%

(0.282 - 3.46)

Before 2035, will the major science funding agencies NIH and NSF require formal reporting of AI involvement in research outputs as a condition of funding?

Streamlined, LLM-Enhanced Question Discovery

Agentized LLM Improves self by July 1, 2023? → When will agentized-LLMs first cause harm?

When will large language models exceed superforecasters’ accuracy in ForecastBench?

What is the top MMLU score on the following dates?

LLM passes ARA before 2025? → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)

Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?

Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?

Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?

When will LLaMA-3 be released?

Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?

Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?

What percentage of the US workforce will be in computer specialist roles in 2050?

The Role of Special Tokens in LLMs

Before 2035, will the major science funding agencies NIH and NSF require formal reporting of AI involvement in research outputs as a condition of funding?

Streamlined, LLM-Enhanced Question Discovery

Agentized LLM Improves self by July 1, 2023? → When will agentized-LLMs first cause harm?

When will large language models exceed superforecasters’ accuracy in ForecastBench?

What is the top MMLU score on the following dates?

LLM passes ARA before 2025? → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)

Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?

Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?

Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?

When will LLaMA-3 be released?

Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?

Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?

What percentage of the US workforce will be in computer specialist roles in 2050?

The Role of Special Tokens in LLMs