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2 comments
4 forecasters

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?

Current estimate
Revealed tomorrow
3 comments

Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?

Current estimate
Revealed in 5 days

Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

8
1919 comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025

Contributed by the A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival community.

1 comment
17 forecasters

Will any Russian elites die under suspicious circumstances before December 1, 2025?

70%chance
3 comments
36 forecasters

Will there be a frontier AI model from the given country before 2035?

India50%
Israel29%
Russia9%
32 comments
49 forecasters

Who will be the first long-term President of Russia after Putin?

Mikhail Mishustin10.1%
Dmitry Medvedev4.6%
Nikolai Patrushev3%
23 comments
169 forecasters

Will Russia's total territory decrease by at least 20% before 2028?

1%chance
1 comment
49 forecasters

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?

75%chance

Contributed by the Cпільнота українських передбачувачів community.

Турнір української спільноти

0 comments
Cпільнота українських передбачувачів

Threshold 2030: 30 economists & AI policy experts forecast AI's economic impact

5
11 comment