3 comments
6 forecasters
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?
21%chance
14% this week
3 comments
2 forecasters
Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?
60%chance
10% this week
Contributed by the A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival community.
1 comment
19 forecasters
Will any Russian elites die under suspicious circumstances before December 1, 2025?
60%chance
5% this week
32 comments
49 forecasters
Who will be the first long-term President of Russia after Putin?
Mikhail Mishustin12%
Dmitry Medvedev5%
Nikolai Patrushev3%
3 comments
36 forecasters
Will there be a frontier AI model from the given country before 2035?
India50%
Israel29%
Russia9%
23 comments
169 forecasters
Will Russia's total territory decrease by at least 20% before 2028?
1%chance
Contributed by the Cпільнота українських передбачувачів community.