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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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Announcing the Winners of the RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge!

6
55 comments

Will there be a frontier AI model from the given country before 2035?

9
33 comments
39
39 forecasters

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?

12.1% chance

1
33 comments
15
15 forecasters
12.1%chance

Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?

49.9% chance

33 comments
9
9 forecasters
49.9%chance

Will Russia have an AI data center with >10,000 H100e before 2027?

8.4% chance

2
88 comments
16
16 forecasters
8.4%chance

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?

66.7% chance

3
11 comment
54
54 forecasters
66.7%chance

Who will be the first long-term President of Russia after Putin?

9
3232 comments
53
53 forecasters

Will Russia's total territory decrease by at least 20% before 2028?

1% chance

9
2323 comments
174
174 forecasters
1%chance

Matthew Yglesias Predicts 2021

21
1313 comments

Red Line Podcast tackles Metaculus Questions

9
22 comments

Nuclear risk funding & labor

3
11 comment

Nuclear proliferation, force sizes, & yields

6
66 comments

Intersections between nuclear risk and AI

5
0 comments

Equity Premium Puzzles

14
0 comments

Population Crashes: The Deadliest Events In History

8
0 comments

2022 Resolutions: Predict with Public Figures

12
0 comments

Erik Hoel & Claimed Public Figure Pages

6
0 comments

Scott Alexander's 2022 Predictions

15
0 comments

A brief but hopeful vignette

4
11 comment

Where is the AGI Roadmap?

5
22 comments

Action Ontologies, Computer Ontologies

19
11 comment

Ukraine Conflict Challenge Discussion

55
169169 comments

The China and Global Cooperation Tournament

6
0 comments

Ukraine Conflict Update for Wednesday, 2022-03-09

6
0 comments