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📈Market Pulse Q2 Winners: Evidence of Edge

4
1 comment1
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Key Factor

The scalability of technology is going to be the biggest key factor which will decide the winner

Gary Marcus win80.9%
Nathan Young win17%
Other2.1%

Key Factor

The scalability of technology is going to be the biggest key factor which will decide the winner

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

condition

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

5 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

1 comment1

Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?

70%chance

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Biological and Chemical?

00

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following AI R&D risk levels?

00

When will Nvidia's market capitalization surpass $10 trillion?

Apr 2034
4.5 years this week

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN uplift level 1?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN risk level 4?

16 Dec 2028