0 comments
20 forecasters
Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?
5%chance
0 comments
106 forecasters
Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?
20%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
5 comments
28 forecasters
Will Elon Musk have quadruple the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2030?
5%chance
21% this week
Key Factors
0 comments
11 forecasters
Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $220 or below $180 on any single day before November 22, 2025?
50%chance
16% this week
6 comments
4 forecasters
Will China publicly sell domestic AI accelerators to Russia by 2030?
74%chance
0 comments
107 forecasters
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
15%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
100 forecasters
How large will the largest cluster used to train an AI model be, by the end of the following years? (2025)
Latest estimate
173k GPUs
This question is closed for forecasting.
3 comments
2 forecasters
Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?
60%chance
10% this week