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3 comments
37 forecasters

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Current estimate
63.2%
3 comments
39 forecasters

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

Alphabet35.4%
OpenAI22.1%
Anthropic15.8%
1 comment

Will Helion deliver ≥50 MW to Microsoft under their fusion PPA before January 1, 2030?

Current estimate
Revealed in 4 days
0 comments
106 forecasters

Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

6 comments
8 forecasters

When will a satellite be equipped with a nuclear weapon?

Current estimate
Jan 2061

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

0 comments
8 forecasters

What percentage of Americans will identify computers/technology advancement as the US's most important problem by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate
0.668%
11 comments
62 forecasters

On December 1, 2025, what will be the world's most valuable company by market cap?

Nvidia92.2%
Microsoft6.4%
Apple1.2%
5 comments
15 forecasters

Will Tesla operate 400,000 driverless robotaxis over any three consecutive months before 2032?

50%chance
10% this week
8 comments
64 forecasters

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before December 16, 2025?

3%chance
0 comments
31 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%
Google Cloud14.2%
Microsoft Azure14%