88 comments
84 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 85.00% on 2025-09-12 for the Metaculus question "If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?"?
resultNo
89 comments
84 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 45.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question "Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?"?
resultYes
6 comments
16 forecasters
What percentage of their January 2024 search interest will these longevity interventions retain in January 2030?
Epigenetic reprogramming130
Senolytics93
Ozempic82.9
14 comments
85 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind13%
Microsoft5%
xAI3%
3 comments
13 forecasters
When will the New York Times publish an article that it claims or acknowledges is 100% written by AI?
In 2026-202744.7%
In 2028-202924.6%
2030 or later21.6%
4 comments
81 forecasters
Will a third LIGO detector be built in India before 2028?
6%chance
19% this week
35 comments
1.4k forecasters
Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?
75%chance
12% this week
5 comments
19 forecasters
When will the RSA-2048 challenge number be factorized by a quantum computer?
Current estimate
Sep 2035