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Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

3 comments

Will China publicly sell domestic AI accelerators to Russia by 2030?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 3 days

3 comments

1 forecaster

Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 3 days

5 comments

Will Russia have an AI data center with >10,000 H100e before 2027?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 5 days

0 comments

107 forecasters

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

How large will the largest cluster used to train an AI model be, by the end of the following years? (2025)

Latest estimate

173k GPUs

This question is closed for forecasting.

2 comments

4 forecasters

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?

85%chance

0 comments

6 forecasters

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?

13%chance

condition

13 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

0 comments

106 forecasters

Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?

Will China publicly sell domestic AI accelerators to Russia by 2030?

Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?

Will Russia have an AI data center with >10,000 H100e before 2027?

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

How large will the largest cluster used to train an AI model be, by the end of the following years? (2025)

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?

Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?

Will China publicly sell domestic AI accelerators to Russia by 2030?

Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?

Will Russia have an AI data center with >10,000 H100e before 2027?

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

How large will the largest cluster used to train an AI model be, by the end of the following years? (2025)

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?