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Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season

6
0 comments
Respiratory Outlook 2025/26
2 comments
65 forecasters

Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?

40%chance
6% this week
31 comments
18 forecasters

When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season?

00
21 comments
19 forecasters

Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025?

United Kingdomresult: Yes
United Statesresult: Yes
Zambiaresult: Yes
condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

13%
13%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

0%
0%
77 comments
24
24 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
79 comments
218 forecasters

How many human infections of monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?

community
104k
result
Ambiguous
14 comments
34 forecasters

How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?

community
159
result
141
55 comments
32 forecasters

Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?

resultNo
9 comments
39 forecasters

Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?

resultNo
36 comments
182 forecasters

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

2%chance