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US Democracy Index

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Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

1%chance

1% this week

condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

7 7 comments

24 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

21 forecasters

if yes

if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.614

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.951

10 10 comments

21 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

7 comments

52 forecasters

What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Canada as of July 1, 2022?

community

310

result

294

2 comments

4 forecasters

When will these diseases be eradicated according to the WHO?

49 comments

76 forecasters

Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?

resultNo

2 comments

16 forecasters

When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?

Current estimate

Jun 2032

21 comments

19 forecasters

Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025?

United Kingdomresult: Yes

United Statesresult: Yes

Zambiaresult: Yes

0 comments

4 forecasters

How many confirmed mpox cases for the following years (2025+)?

12 comments

48 forecasters

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

resultNo