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Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season
6
0
comments
Respiratory Outlook 2025/26
10
comments
9
forecasters
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?
15%
chance
condition
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
24
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
7%
7%
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
0%
0%
7
7
comments
24
24
forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
condition
Will USDA license HPAI H5 vax in dairy cows by July 1, 2025?
Resolved:
No
17
forecasters
if yes
if no
How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
124
Resolved:
Annulled
How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
144
13
13
comments
17
17
forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
23
comments
90
forecasters
How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
Current estimate
78 cases
condition
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
21
forecasters
if yes
if no
If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
0.61
If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
0.942
10
10
comments
21
21
forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
8
comments
30
forecasters
Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?
result
No
70
comments
118
forecasters
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?
result
No
36
comments
182
forecasters
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
2%
chance
52
comments
44
forecasters
If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
community
1.32
result
Annulled
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