Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?1% chance35151 comments201201 forecasters1%chance
Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?1% chance51818 comments103103 forecasters1%chance
Respiratory Outlook April Update: Measles Surge Slows as Flu Season Ends with Likely Moderate Severity50 comments
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?77 comments2525 forecasters
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026? → If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?1010 comments2121 forecasters
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?5% chance31212 comments2525 forecasters5%chance
Respiratory Outlook May Update: Low Chance for Hantavirus Spread as Measles Forecast Drops Again30 comments
How many infections of novel Henipavirus will have occurred before 2023?104 (55.7 - 446)1133 comments1515 forecasters104 (55.7 - 446)
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?22% chance332727 comments229229 forecasters22%chance
Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?13% chance5252 comments2929 forecastersAmbiguous
What will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease in the following years?833 comments6161 forecasters
Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?result: no233 comments101101 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?result: no944 comments8383 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?53% chance1322 comments9696 forecasters53%chance
Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?5% chance433434 comments301301 forecasters5%chance
Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?result: no966 comments5252 forecastersResolvedNo
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?5% chance51010 comments5757 forecasters5%chance
Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?25% chance322020 comments163163 forecasters25%chance
How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?2361 (2044 - 2691)112020 comments5353 forecasters2361 (2044 - 2691)