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Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

1.5%chance

1.3% this week

8 comments

39 forecasters

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

Current estimate

76.4k deaths

condition

Will USDA license HPAI H5 vax in dairy cows by July 1, 2025?

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

124

Resolved:Annulled

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

144

13 13 comments

17 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

2 comments

55 forecasters

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

63%chance

23 comments

52 forecasters

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

Current estimate

84.4 cases

condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

21 forecasters

if yes

if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.646

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.957

10 10 comments

21 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

13%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

7 7 comments

24 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

36 comments

206 forecasters

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

5%chance

52 comments

44 forecasters

If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

community

1.32

result

Annulled

70 comments

118 forecasters

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?

resultNo