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Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season

6
0 comments
Respiratory Outlook 2025/26
10 comments
9 forecasters

Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?

15%chance
condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

7%
7%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

0%
0%
77 comments
24
24 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
condition

Will USDA license HPAI H5 vax in dairy cows by July 1, 2025?

Resolved:No
17 forecasters
if yes
if no

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

124
Resolved:Annulled

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

144
1313 comments
17
17 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
23 comments
90 forecasters

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

Current estimate
78 cases
condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

21 forecasters
if yes
if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.61

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.942
1010 comments
21
21 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
8 comments
30 forecasters

Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?

resultNo
70 comments
118 forecasters

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?

resultNo
36 comments
182 forecasters

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

2%chance
52 comments
44 forecasters

If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

community
1.32
result
Annulled