Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
🗳️
US Democracy Index
❓
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
🗞️
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
📈
Indexes
💎
Metaculus Cup
🌍
AI Pathways
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season
6
0
comments
Respiratory Outlook 2025/26
10
comments
9
forecasters
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?
15%
chance
condition
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
24
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
7%
7%
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
0%
0%
7
7
comments
24
24
forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
10
comments
17
forecasters
What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?
RSV
3.55
Flu
9.93
COVID-19
4.18
1 other
13
comments
19
forecasters
When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?
00
condition
Will USDA license HPAI H5 vax in dairy cows by July 1, 2025?
Resolved:
No
17
forecasters
if yes
if no
How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
124
Resolved:
Annulled
How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
144
13
13
comments
17
17
forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
23
comments
90
forecasters
How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
Current estimate
78 cases
condition
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
21
forecasters
if yes
if no
If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
0.61
If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
0.942
10
10
comments
21
21
forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
99
comments
59
forecasters
How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?
21 to 100
result:
Yes
More than 100
0.7%
0
0.1%
2 others
0%
70
comments
118
forecasters
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?
result
No
Load More