Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?0.1% chance35454 comments211211 forecasters0.1%chance
Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?0.3% chance51919 comments102102 forecasters0.3%chance
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
How many named variants of SARS-COV-2 in its first 10 years?15.5 variants (14 - 20.3)499 comments1818 forecasters15.5 variants (14 - 20.3)
Respiratory Outlook April Update: Measles Surge Slows as Flu Season Ends with Likely Moderate Severity50 comments
How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?8967 (2609 - 34.2k)744 comments4242 forecasters8967 (2609 - 34.2k)
Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?53% chance1322 comments9797 forecasters53%chance
Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?5% chance433434 comments301301 forecasters5%chance
Respiratory Outlook May Update: Low Chance for Hantavirus Spread as Measles Forecast Drops Again30 comments
How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?2361 (2044 - 2691)112020 comments5353 forecasters2361 (2044 - 2691)
Ragnarök Question Series: if a natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?1% chance51818 comments2626 forecasters1%chance
How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?848k (376k - 2.15M)51212 comments5151 forecasters848k (376k - 2.15M)
Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?result: no71212 comments5353 forecastersResolvedNo
Will there be any human cases of the novel coronavirus, HKU5-CoV-2, before July 1, 2025?result: no8787 comments7878 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza before January 7, 2025?17.8% chance5858 comments3030 forecastersAmbiguous
What will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease in the following years?833 comments6161 forecasters