Question Feed | Metaculus

Will a novel human-infectious pandemic originate in these countries before 2100?

3

Respiratory Outlook July Update: Screwworm continues US spread as Ebola outbreak surges in DRC

4

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

6% chance

5

56

6%chance

In the InfoGripe bulletin published on or immediately before June 25, 2026, which respiratory virus will be the single most prevalent among positive SRAG cases nationally over the most recent 4-week window?

87

Respiratory Outlook June Update: New World Screwworm Enters the US

3

Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?

result: yes

43

238

ResolvedYes

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

result: no

58

589

ResolvedNo

Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?

result: no

13

131

ResolvedNo

Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?

0.1% chance

5

105

0.1%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

22.8% chance

33

228

22.8%chance

Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?

5% chance

3

23

5%chance

Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?

result: no

29

132

ResolvedNo

Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?

result: no

4

155

ResolvedNo

Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?

result: no

3

66

ResolvedNo

Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?

result: no

12

81

ResolvedNo

Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2040?

60% chance

6

60%chance

Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?

result: no

9

76

ResolvedNo

Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?

result: no

12

91

ResolvedNo

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

5% chance

43

301

5%chance

Pandemic series: pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard?

result: no

3

64

ResolvedNo

Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?

result: no

9

83

ResolvedNo

Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?

result: no

2

101

ResolvedNo