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Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season

6
0 comments
Respiratory Outlook 2025/26
10 comments
9 forecasters

Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?

15%chance
10 comments
17 forecasters

What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?

RSV3.5
Flu9.81
COVID-193.82
13 comments
18 forecasters

When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?

00
2 comments
65 forecasters

Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?

40%chance
5% this week
31 comments
18 forecasters

When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season?

00
condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

13%
13%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

0%
0%
77 comments
24
24 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
3 comments
15 forecasters

How many infections of novel Henipavirus will have occurred before 2023?

community
104
result
Annulled
condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

21 forecasters
if yes
if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.609

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.942
1010 comments
21
21 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
113 comments
589 forecasters

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

resultNo