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10 comments
6 forecasters

Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?

Current estimate
Revealed in 2 days
2 comments
60 forecasters

Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?

40%chance
19% this week
36 comments
224 forecasters

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

2%chance
condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

13%
13%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

0%
0%
77 comments
24
24 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
113 comments
589 forecasters

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

resultNo
4 comments
83 forecasters

Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?

resultNo
34 comments
301 forecasters

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

3 comments
15 forecasters

How many infections of novel Henipavirus will have occurred before 2023?

community
104
result
Annulled
27 comments
225 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

22.8%chance
12 comments
51 forecasters

How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?

community
848k
result
231k