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condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

13%
13%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

0%
0%
77 comments
24
24 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
113 comments
589 forecasters

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

resultNo
4 comments
83 forecasters

Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?

resultNo
27 comments
225 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

22.8%chance
3 comments
15 forecasters

How many infections of novel Henipavirus will have occurred before 2023?

community
104
result
Annulled
12 comments
112 forecasters

Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?

resultNo
5 comments
152 forecasters

What type of pathogen will cause the next pandemic?

Orthomyxoviridae58%
Other 24 known HIVF25%
Coronaviridae15%

This question is closed for forecasting.

46 comments
238 forecasters

Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment
76 forecasters

Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?

resultNo
18 comments
73 forecasters

Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?

resultNo