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Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season

6
0 comments
Respiratory Outlook 2025/26
condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

7%
7%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

0%
0%
77 comments
24
24 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
113 comments
589 forecasters

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

resultNo
9 comments
18 forecasters

How many named variants of SARS-COV-2 in its first 10 years?

Current estimate
18 variants
5 comments
35 forecasters

How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?

community
3.11
result
5
25 comments
90 forecasters

Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?

community
4.12
result
12
3 comments
15 forecasters

How many infections of novel Henipavirus will have occurred before 2023?

community
104
result
Annulled

Sharpen the Respiratory Outlook for 2025/26

0 comments
Respiratory Outlook 2025/26
5 comments
152 forecasters

What type of pathogen will cause the next pandemic?

Orthomyxoviridae58%
Other 24 known HIVF25%
Coronaviridae15%

This question is closed for forecasting.

27 comments
225 forecasters

RagnarΓΆk Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

22.8%chance