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condition
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
24
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
13%
13%
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
0%
0%
7
7
comments
24
24
forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
113
comments
589
forecasters
Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?
result
No
4
comments
83
forecasters
Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?
result
No
27
comments
225
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?
22.8%
chance
3
comments
15
forecasters
How many infections of novel Henipavirus will have occurred before 2023?
community
104
result
Annulled
12
comments
112
forecasters
Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?
result
No
5
comments
152
forecasters
What type of pathogen will cause the next pandemic?
Orthomyxoviridae
58%
Other 24 known HIVF
25%
Coronaviridae
15%
1 other
This question is closed for forecasting.
46
comments
238
forecasters
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?
10%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
1
comment
76
forecasters
Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?
result
No
18
comments
73
forecasters
Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?
result
No
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