Question Feed | Metaculus

Questions
Tournaments
Discover
Services

Questions
Tournaments
Discover

Questions
Tournaments

Questions

Questions

Economy & Business

Artificial Intelligence

Health & Pandemics

Computing and Math

Environment & Climate

Natural Sciences

Sports & Entertainment

🧑‍🤝‍🧑

Social Sciences

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Cryptocurrencies

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestions Tournaments Tournaments for AI bots FutureEval

ServicesLaunch a Tournament Private Instances Pro Forecasters

CompanyAboutCareers FAQ

ResourcesForecasting Resources For Journalists API

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

When will Altos Labs first trial an anti-aging intervention in humans?

09 Aug 2030 (29 Jul 2028 - Aug 2033)

12

20

20 forecasters

09 Aug 2030

(29 Jul 2028 - Aug 2033)

Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?

9% chance

1

765

765 forecasters

9%chance

What vaccine efficacy will the M72 tuberculosis vaccine show in the Phase 3 Gates MRI trial?

45.7% (34.9 - 55.6)

1

20

20 forecasters

45.7%

(34.9 - 55.6)

Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2031?

49% chance

7

34

34 forecasters

49%chance

When will epigenome editing be used in human embryos as a therapeutic approach for genetic diseases?

Oct 2034 (11 Mar 2031 - Jun 2038)

2

5

5 forecasters

Oct 2034

(11 Mar 2031 - Jun 2038)

How many cluster-randomized trials will be published before 2027 assessing whether far-UVC reduces transmission of airborne pathogens?

1.42 CRT (0.748 - 2.59)

1

5

5 forecasters

1.42 CRT

(0.748 - 2.59)

Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?

result: no

14

118

118 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will a universal allogeneic cell therapy platform receive FDA approval before 2035?

50% chance

2

8

8 forecasters

50%chance

Will Avraham Eisenberg be convicted of a felony in the United States before 2028?

result: yes

8

42

42 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Will the cancer pill AOH1996 enter Phase III clinical trials before January 1, 2027?

8% chance

5

15

15 forecasters

8%chance

How many months in prison will Avraham Eisenberg be sentenced to before 2030?

63.9 months (40.7 - 104)

4

10

10 forecasters

63.9 months

(40.7 - 104)

Will a biologic therapy targeting Mycobacterium tuberculosis be tested in humans before 2038?

53% chance

3

20

20 forecasters

53%chance

Will Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

40% chance

5

66

66 forecasters

40%chance

Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

85% chance

11

91

91 forecasters

85%chance

Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?

result: yes

4

50

50 forecasters

ResolvedYes

New ultrasound Alzheimer's treatment to clinical trial in humans by end of 2017?

result: no

10

45

45 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Zapping Zika #5: Clinical trials of IFITM3-based therapies?

result: no

6

61

61 forecasters

ResolvedNo

When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?

06 Dec 2030 (21 Dec 2027 - Sep 2035)

20

96

96 forecasters

06 Dec 2030

(21 Dec 2027 - Sep 2035)

Will any (non-UK) European Union member state grant regulatory approval for clinical trials using human embryonic stem cells by the end of May?

40% chance

6

50

50 forecasters

Ambiguous

Ideas for clinical trials contest

17

From Reduction to Elimination: Replicating the Successes of Historical Tuberculosis Control

5

⚕️Primum Non Nocere: A Physician’s Perspective on AI in Medicine

10