Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?18.5% chance12121 comments759759 forecasters18.5%chance
What vaccine efficacy will the M72 tuberculosis vaccine show in the Phase 3 Gates MRI trial?45% (34 - 54.8)11818 comments2020 forecasters45% (34 - 54.8)
How many cluster-randomized trials will be published before 2027 assessing whether far-UVC reduces transmission of airborne pathogens?1.73 CRT (0.92 - 2.88)155 comments55 forecasters1.73 CRT (0.92 - 2.88)
When will epigenome editing be used in human embryos as a therapeutic approach for genetic diseases?Oct 2034 (02 Mar 2031 - May 2038)211 comment55 forecastersOct 2034 (02 Mar 2031 - May 2038)
Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?result: no1466 comments118118 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a universal allogeneic cell therapy platform receive FDA approval before 2035?50% chance211 comment88 forecasters50%chance
Will Avraham Eisenberg be convicted of a felony in the United States before 2028?result: yes82424 comments4242 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the cancer pill AOH1996 enter Phase III clinical trials before January 1, 2027?16.4% chance522 comments1414 forecasters16.4%chance
How many months in prison will Avraham Eisenberg be sentenced to before 2030?63.9 months (40.7 - 104)455 comments1010 forecasters63.9 months (40.7 - 104)
Will a biologic therapy targeting Mycobacterium tuberculosis be tested in humans before 2038?53% chance344 comments2020 forecasters53%chance
When will Altos Labs first trial an anti-aging intervention in humans?09 Aug 2030 (29 Jul 2028 - Aug 2033)1233 comments2020 forecasters09 Aug 2030 (29 Jul 2028 - Aug 2033)
Will Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?40% chance51414 comments6666 forecasters40%chance
Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?85% chance112424 comments9191 forecasters85%chance
Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2031?49% chance622 comments3434 forecasters49%chance
New ultrasound Alzheimer's treatment to clinical trial in humans by end of 2017?result: no1011 comment4545 forecastersResolvedNo
Zapping Zika #5: Clinical trials of IFITM3-based therapies?result: no611 comment6161 forecastersResolvedNo
When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?29 Oct 2030 (10 Nov 2027 - Aug 2035)202727 comments9696 forecasters29 Oct 2030 (10 Nov 2027 - Aug 2035)
Will any (non-UK) European Union member state grant regulatory approval for clinical trials using human embryonic stem cells by the end of May?40% chance61010 comments5050 forecastersAmbiguous
From Reduction to Elimination: Replicating the Successes of Historical Tuberculosis Control50 comments