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What will be the access status of Claude Fable and Mythos on September 1, 2026?

4

108

108 forecasters

Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

9

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

26% chance

24

328

328 forecasters

26%chance

When will an 8 hour, 80% reliability time horizon be achieved on METR’s Autonomy Tasks by a Claude Sonnet 4 scale model by Anthropic?

2

Introducing the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub

9

When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?

Feb 2046 (Aug 2034 - 2087)

10

118

118 forecasters

Feb 2046

(Aug 2034 - 2087)

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

25% chance

37

469

469 forecasters

25%chance

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

35% chance

85

646

646 forecasters

35%chance

What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?

16

81

81 forecasters

Can you forecast the future of science?

6

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

40

173 173 comments

279

279 forecasters

What percentage of Americans will consider AI or advancement of computers/technology to be the most important problem in January 2028?

11 % mentioning (4 - 22)

98

98 forecasters

11 % mentioning

(4 - 22)

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

18

97

97 forecasters

Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?

23

63

63 forecasters

How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years?

18

129

129 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?

1% chance

7

197

197 forecasters

1%chance

Five years after AGI, will a Dyson swarm be under construction?

1% chance

5

57

57 forecasters

1%chance

Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?

50% chance

55

288

288 forecasters

50%chance

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

36% chance

60

424

424 forecasters

36%chance

How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years?

15

172

172 forecasters

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

9

73

73 forecasters

What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?

29

191

191 forecasters