8 comments
74 forecasters
What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?
21 comments
304 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%chance
44 comments
434 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
28%chance
5 comments
26 forecasters
How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?
Current estimate
5.64 paths
54 comments
283 forecasters
Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?
52%chance
24 comments
93 forecasters
What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?
9 comments
74 forecasters
Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?
1%chance
1% this week