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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
condition

CTs Deep Learning Revenue

16 forecasters
if yes
if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

68%
68%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

1%
1%
3
1 comment1
Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Will the number of UFO sightings reported by the National UFO Reporting Center exceed 350 for September 2025?

60%chance
5% today

Join Foresight’s AI Pathways Tournament: $5,000 Comment Prize

8
1 comment1
AI Pathways Tournament

Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?

59%chance

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opusresult: No
Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra4.2%
OpenAI / GPT-53%

Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?

32%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

25%chance

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

24%chance

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

Futurama32.1%
AI-Dystopia25.7%
Singularia16.6%
and 2 others