What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?141313 comments9898 forecasters
What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?899 comments8080 forecasters
What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?1699 comments8181 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?41173173 comments282282 forecasters
What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years?599 comments6767 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance252323 comments333333 forecasters30%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?30% chance384444 comments471471 forecasters30%chance
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?47% chance39101101 comments470470 forecasters47%chance
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?39% chance602323 comments425425 forecasters39%chance
Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?1% chance21111 comments8383 forecasters1%chance
Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?35% chance858484 comments647647 forecasters35%chance
When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?Aug 2046 (Dec 2034 - 2089)104040 comments118118 forecastersAug 2046 (Dec 2034 - 2089)
What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?292020 comments191191 forecasters
What percentage of Americans will consider AI or advancement of computers/technology to be the most important problem in January 2028?8 % mentioning (2 - 18)1010 comments9999 forecasters8 % mentioning (2 - 18)
How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years?182121 comments129129 forecasters