What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?182424 comments9898 forecasters
What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?1699 comments8181 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters30%chance
Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?60% chance294747 comments130130 forecasters60%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?27% chance364545 comments468468 forecasters27%chance
What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?92020 comments7373 forecasters
How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years?182121 comments130130 forecasters
Five years after AGI, what will be global carbon emissions?32.1B billion tonnes (20.5B - 42.9B)222 comments2323 forecasters32.1B billion tonnes (20.5B - 42.9B)
What will be the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories?522 comments3434 forecasters
What will be the total quantity of space debris orbiting earth in each year?799 comments3636 forecasters
Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?40% chance858484 comments645645 forecasters40%chance
Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?3.5% chance299 comments8484 forecasters3.5%chance
How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years?151919 comments171171 forecasters
What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?1154 events (798 - 1892)80 comments4343 forecasters1154 events (798 - 1892)