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Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system reached AI R&D risk level 5?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will an 8 hour, 80% reliability time horizon be achieved on METR’s Autonomy Tasks by a Claude Sonnet 4 scale model by Anthropic?

What percentage of Americans will consider AI or advancement of computers/technology to be the most important problem in January 2028?

8.51
% mentioning
←→91.2 percentage points this week

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opusresult: No
Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra5%
OpenAI / GPT-53%

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

10
6 comments6
AI Progress Essay Contest

On the DesignSafe-CI portal, how many publications will there be in June 2025?

This question is closed for forecasting.
Latest Community predictions were:

21-3036.3%
0-2031.3%
31-4021.8%
and 1 other

The Future of Human Spaceflight

10
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

What Is the Future of American Financial Surveillance?

10
1 comment1
Metaculus Journal Archives

Are We Surprised by AI Milestones?

8
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Five years after AGI, what will be global carbon emissions?

31.8B
billion tonnes