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Autocast is in early access: ask Metaculus's AI forecaster about your future

Will Metaculus exist in 2050?

56% chance

1

8

8 forecasters

56%chance

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

45

222 222 comments

331

331 forecasters

Will a Space-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?

15% chance

7

7 forecasters

15%chance

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

64% chance

14

53

53 forecasters

64%chance

Radiant is Open

8

AI Military Disempowerment Pro Discussion

Will ChatGPT-type chatbots disappear before 2100?

93% chance

2

14

14 forecasters

93%chance

Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

2

5

5 forecasters

Economist 2021 Series Announcement

8

Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?

1

117

117 forecasters

Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.

3

CTs Deep Learning Revenue → CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

2

22

22 forecasters

What will be the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories?

5

39

39 forecasters

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: July 2026 Updates

7

Streamlined, LLM-Enhanced Question Discovery

20

What will be the world population in the following years?

9

39

39 forecasters

What will productivity be in the United States in the following years?

4

82

82 forecasters

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

9

72

72 forecasters

Will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals before 2100?

3% chance

2

87

87 forecasters

3%chance

If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

25% chance

26

343

343 forecasters

25%chance

What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?

8

81

81 forecasters