97 comments
184 forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Current estimate
Mar 2032
0 comments
106 forecasters
Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?
5%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
44 comments
436 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
30%chance
2 comments
59 forecasters
Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?
0.1%chance
21 comments
309 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%chance
0 comments
48 forecasters
By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?
1%chance