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$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
33 comments
AI Pathways Tournament

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

4
0 comments
condition

CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe

16 forecasters
if yes
if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

77%
77%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

30%
30%
2
33 comments
16
16 forecasters
Conditional Trees: AI Risk
26 comments
43 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?

11%chance
9% this week
20 comments
287 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

24%chance
169 comments
243 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

Futurama30%
AI-Dystopia23.7%
Singularia18.9%
condition

CTs AI Admin Disempowerment Before 2030

17 forecasters
if yes
if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

26%
26%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

5%
5%
4
11 comment
17
17 forecasters
Conditional Trees: AI Risk
9 comments
75 forecasters

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

2%chance
2% this week
43 comments
422 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

21%chance
19 comments
104 forecasters

How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?