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Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?

result: yes

43

238

238 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Forecasts: Capabilities Progress

Announcing the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 ft. Nathan Young!

15

Announcing the Metaculus Cup Summer 2026 With Dylan Matthews!

11

Five years after AGI, will human mind uploading have happened?

5% chance

10

85

85 forecasters

5%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30% chance

24

329

329 forecasters

30%chance

Can you forecast the future of science?

6

Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

60% chance

29

130

130 forecasters

60%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27% chance

36

468

468 forecasters

27%chance

When will AI arrive?

2

Announcing: Epoch AI Robotics Series

8

Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?

result: yes

6

86

86 forecasters

ResolvedYes

By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?

33% chance

14

136

136 forecasters

33%chance

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

9

73

73 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?

11% chance

4

49

49 forecasters

11%chance

Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?

23

61

61 forecasters

By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?

1% chance

5

51

51 forecasters

1%chance

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

63% chance

1

118

118 forecasters

63%chance

What will be the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories?

5

34

34 forecasters

Will any person be charged with at least 1 death in space before 2036?

3% chance

17

17 forecasters

3%chance

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

3.5% chance

2

84

84 forecasters

3.5%chance

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

40% chance

11

45

45 forecasters

40%chance

How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years?

15

171

171 forecasters

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

76% chance

25

148

148 forecasters

76%chance