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$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

4 4 comments

AI Pathways Tournament

0 comments

106 forecasters

Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

Platform feature suggestions

113

3.1k 3.1k comments

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Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

3 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

93%

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

13%

4 4 comments

3 forecasters

9 comments

40 forecasters

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

Mark Zuckerbergresult: No

Sundar Pichairesult: No

Sam Altmanresult: No

19 comments

20 forecasters

When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?

Current estimate

Oct 2035

1 comment

23 forecasters

Before January 1, 2030 will any public or private space company announce plans to reach "Oumuamua"?

0.2%chance

1.8% this week

8 comments

74 forecasters

What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?

81 comments

624 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance

38 comments

126 forecasters

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?

Platform feature suggestions

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?

Before January 1, 2030 will any public or private space company announce plans to reach "Oumuamua"?

What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?

Platform feature suggestions

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?

Before January 1, 2030 will any public or private space company announce plans to reach "Oumuamua"?

What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?