14 comments
85 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind13%
Microsoft5%
xAI3%
3 comments
13 forecasters
When will the New York Times publish an article that it claims or acknowledges is 100% written by AI?
In 2026-202744.7%
In 2028-202924.6%
2030 or later21.6%
5 comments
19 forecasters
When will the RSA-2048 challenge number be factorized by a quantum computer?
Current estimate
Sep 2035
3 comments
124 forecasters
What percentage of Americans will consider AI or advancement of computers/technology to be the most important problem in January 2028?
Current estimate
15.3 % mentioning
9 comments
40 forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?
Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
26 comments
43 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
11%chance
9% this week
1 comment
3 forecasters
What will be the total AI compute capacity on January 1, 2028?
Current estimate
64.8M H100 Equivalents