97 comments
97 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?
resultNo
97 comments
183 forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Current estimate
Sep 2031
Contributed by the AI Warning Signs community.
2 comments
11 forecasters
Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?
62.8%chance
0 comments
32 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH29%
Google Cloud12%
Amazon Web Services11%
2 comments
40 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Microsoft Azure5%
Amazon Web Services5%
95 comments
95 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 19.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?
resultNo
24 comments
81 forecasters
Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?
50%chance
15% this week
Key Factors
9 comments
40 forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?
Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
6 comments
82 forecasters
Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?
50%chance
5% this week
Key Factors