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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Dec 2032 (18 Feb 2029 - Apr 2041)

217

654 654 comments

1.9k

1.9k forecasters

Dec 2032

(18 Feb 2029 - Apr 2041)

Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?

11% chance

4

50

50 forecasters

11%chance

When will an AI be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?

27 Sep 2027 (02 Mar 2026 - 29 Mar 2030)

29

143

143 forecasters

27 Sep 2027

(02 Mar 2026 - 29 Mar 2030)

When will AI arrive?

2

When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?

27 Dec 2028 (28 Jul 2025 - Nov 2033)

9

32

32 forecasters

27 Dec 2028

(28 Jul 2025 - Nov 2033)

When will AI be capable of getting a perfect score on the Putnam Mathematical Competition?

31 Aug 2027 (11 Jun 2026 21:02 - Dec 2031)

22

51

51 forecasters

31 Aug 2027

(11 Jun 2026 21:02 - Dec 2031)

Announcing: AI Outlook With JetBrains, $3,000 Prize Pool

5

What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?

94.2 (90.5 - 96.9)

10

10 forecasters

94.2

(90.5 - 96.9)

When will AI be capable of getting a perfect score on the Miklós Schweitzer Competition?

11 Mar 2028 (14 Jul 2026 - Nov 2032)

22

38

38 forecasters

11 Mar 2028

(14 Jul 2026 - Nov 2032)

Will there be more ArXiv AI publications in the “Computation and Language” subcategory than in the “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” subcategory in the calendar year 2019?

result: no

4

53

53 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Wanted: developer

5

Tech Futures - 52 Conversation Starters

2

Elliptic Curves, Diophantine Equations, and Cryptography

12

Computability and Complexity

16

Where is the AGI Roadmap?

5

Action Ontologies, Computer Ontologies

19

The next five years

5

Leverage AI-centric to AGI and ASI-centric beyond Moore's Law

Deep Learning ourselves into the unknown

3

The Unsolvable Control Problem, Artificial Sentience, and InfoSec

The Understanding AI Series With Timothy Lee

8

Cryptocurrency competition status

Take the Research Impact Challenge