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Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?

11%chance

9% this week

20 comments

141 forecasters

When will an AI be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?

Current estimate

12 May 2027

1 comment

35 forecasters

When will AI be capable of getting a perfect score on the Miklós Schweitzer Competition?

Current estimate

17 Jul 2029

7 comments

23 forecasters

What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025?

condition

12 forecasters

Contributed by the JetBrains community.

0 comments

2 forecasters

What percentage of problems from Long Code Arena do you estimate the top-performing AI model or agent will be able to solve by December'25?

Commit message generation99.6

Module summarization99.5

Library-based code generation97.4

4 comments

46 forecasters

When will AI be capable of getting a perfect score on the Putnam Mathematical Competition?

Current estimate

03 Feb 2029

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

7 comments

21 forecasters

What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate

56.7%

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

0 comments

15 forecasters

What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate

87.8 score

Contributed by the Harvard's AI Safety Student Team community.

0 comments

10 forecasters

What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?

Latest estimate

94.2

This question is closed for forecasting.

Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?

When will an AI be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?

When will AI be capable of getting a perfect score on the Miklós Schweitzer Competition?

What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025?

US restricts compute before 2026?

Date AIs Capable of Developing AI Software

Date AIs Capable of Developing AI Software

What percentage of problems from Long Code Arena do you estimate the top-performing AI model or agent will be able to solve by December'25?

When will AI be capable of getting a perfect score on the Putnam Mathematical Competition?

What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?

What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?

What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?

Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?

When will an AI be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?

When will AI be capable of getting a perfect score on the Miklós Schweitzer Competition?

What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025?

US restricts compute before 2026?

Date AIs Capable of Developing AI Software

Date AIs Capable of Developing AI Software

What percentage of problems from Long Code Arena do you estimate the top-performing AI model or agent will be able to solve by December'25?

When will AI be capable of getting a perfect score on the Putnam Mathematical Competition?

What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?

What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?

What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?