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10 comments
138 forecasters

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

90%chance
169 comments
247 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

Futurama30.1%
AI-Dystopia24.9%
Singularia20%
2 comments
13 forecasters

What will be the best proven upper bound on the infimum of S in 2120?

Current estimate
0.506
19 comments
20 forecasters

When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?

Current estimate
Jun 2035

Key Factors

26 comments
44 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?

11%chance

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

1 comment
9 forecasters

What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate
82.6%

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

0 comments
15 forecasters

What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate
87.5 score

Contributed by the JetBrains community.

0 comments
3 forecasters

What percentage of problems from Long Code Arena do you estimate the top-performing AI model or agent will be able to solve by December'25?

Commit message generation99.5
Module summarization99.5
Library-based code generation97.3
8 comments
31 forecasters

When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?

Current estimate
01 Jun 2029
20 comments
141 forecasters

When will an AI be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?

Current estimate
26 May 2027