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When will an AI be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?

Current estimate

12 May 2027

26 comments

43 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?

11%chance

9% this week

169 comments

243 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

Futurama30%

AI-Dystopia23.7%

Singularia18.9%

1 comment

12 forecasters

In 2040, what will be the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in Peano arithmetic?

Current estimate

2 comments

13 forecasters

In 2040, what will be the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in ZFC set theory?

Current estimate

78.8

Contributed by the JetBrains community.

0 comments

2 forecasters

What percentage of problems from Long Code Arena do you estimate the top-performing AI model or agent will be able to solve by December'25?

Commit message generation99.6

Module summarization99.5

Library-based code generation97.4

17 comments

19 forecasters

When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?

Current estimate

Jan 2038

1 comment

35 forecasters

When will AI be capable of getting a perfect score on the Miklós Schweitzer Competition?

Current estimate

17 Jul 2029

3 comments

18 forecasters

When will an AI solve half the questions on a Miklós Schweitzer competition?

Current estimate

23 Sep 2026

7 comments

23 forecasters

When will an AI be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?

Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

In 2040, what will be the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in Peano arithmetic?

In 2040, what will be the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in ZFC set theory?

What percentage of problems from Long Code Arena do you estimate the top-performing AI model or agent will be able to solve by December'25?

When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?

When will AI be capable of getting a perfect score on the Miklós Schweitzer Competition?

When will an AI solve half the questions on a Miklós Schweitzer competition?

What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025?

When will an AI be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?

Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

In 2040, what will be the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in Peano arithmetic?

In 2040, what will be the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in ZFC set theory?

What percentage of problems from Long Code Arena do you estimate the top-performing AI model or agent will be able to solve by December'25?

When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?

When will AI be capable of getting a perfect score on the Miklós Schweitzer Competition?

When will an AI solve half the questions on a Miklós Schweitzer competition?

What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025?