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19 comments
20 forecasters

When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?

Current estimate
Oct 2035

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

1 comment
9 forecasters

What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate
82.6%

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

7 comments
21 forecasters

What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate
49.7%
169 comments
246 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

Futurama30.6%
AI-Dystopia24.5%
Singularia18.9%
26 comments
44 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?

11%chance
9 comments
140 forecasters

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

90%chance
20 comments
141 forecasters

When will an AI be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?

Current estimate
26 May 2027
2 comments
18 forecasters

Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?

35.6%chance

Contributed by the JetBrains community.

0 comments
3 forecasters

What percentage of problems from Long Code Arena do you estimate the top-performing AI model or agent will be able to solve by December'25?

Commit message generation99.5
Module summarization99.5
Library-based code generation97.3
8 comments
31 forecasters

When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?

Current estimate
01 Jun 2029