3 comments
39 forecasters
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
Alphabet35.4%
OpenAI22.1%
Anthropic15.8%
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
0 comments
8 forecasters
What percentage of Americans will identify computers/technology advancement as the US's most important problem by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
0.668%
627 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Aug 2033
0 comments
31 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH29%
Google Cloud14.2%
Microsoft Azure14%
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
3 comments
12 forecasters
What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
75.3%
2 comments
39 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%
21 comments
299 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
26%chance