0 comments
32 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH29%
Google Cloud12%
Amazon Web Services11%
2 comments
40 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%
95 comments
183 forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Current estimate
Sep 2031
3 comments
61 forecasters
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
Alphabet34.6%
OpenAI21.2%
Anthropic18.2%
14 comments
63 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind20%
Amazon5%
Microsoft4%
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
0 comments
14 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
20%chance
10% this week
36 comments
65 forecasters
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?
13%chance
Key Factors
3 comments
79 forecasters
Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?
50%chance
10% this week