14 comments
85 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind13%
Microsoft5%
xAI3%
0 comments
29 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH16%
Microsoft Azure14%
Google Cloud12%
2 comments
38 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH27%
Microsoft Azure5%
Amazon Web Services5%
26 comments
43 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
11%chance
9% this week
20 comments
141 forecasters
When will an AI be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?
Current estimate
12 May 2027
622 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Aug 2033