0 comments
32 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH29%
Google Cloud12%
Amazon Web Services11%
97 comments
184 forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Current estimate
Mar 2032
2 comments
40 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Microsoft Azure5%
Amazon Web Services5%
3 comments
51 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
80%chance
631 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Jul 2033
Key Factors
13 comments
130 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
95%chance
7 comments
34 forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
2 or 344.8%
0 or 139.9%
4 or 511.2%
2 comments
22 forecasters
Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?
Inflectionresult: No
Metaresult: No
OpenAIresult: No