0 comments
32 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH29%
Google Cloud14.2%
Microsoft Azure14%
2 comments
40 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%
7 comments
33 forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
2 or 345.2%
0 or 140.1%
4 or 511.5%
19 comments
237 forecasters
Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?
95%chance
630 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Jun 2033
36 comments
65 forecasters
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?
13%chance
2 comments
22 forecasters
Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?
Inflectionresult: No
Metaresult: No
OpenAIresult: No