How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?0 comments33 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?722 comments5353 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?1022 comments5656 forecasters
Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?322 comments2222 forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?71010 comments4141 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters30%chance
Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?42% chance1533 comments8787 forecasters42%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?27% chance364545 comments468468 forecasters27%chance
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?91515 comments4141 forecasters
When will AI wholly create an original, critically-acclaimed feature film?06 Apr 2030 (09 Jan 2028 - Dec 2034)113838 comments113113 forecasters06 Apr 2030 (09 Jan 2028 - Dec 2034)
In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?result: no477 comments1616 forecastersResolvedNo
Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?622 comments3131 forecasters
If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?Oct 2037 (13 Nov 2030 - May 2053)341919 comments165165 forecastersOct 2037 (13 Nov 2030 - May 2053)
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?98% chance333 comments66 forecastersAnnulled
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?98% chance231313 comments142142 forecasters98%chance
How many of the 10 most important advancements in machine learning or artificial intelligence of 2025-2030 will have been discovered by an AI system?3.84 (1.35 - 7.74)166 comments1919 forecasters3.84 (1.35 - 7.74)
Five years after AGI, will an AI Windfall Clause have been activated?1% chance211 comment4141 forecasters1%chance