Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?97% chance396565 comments254254 forecasters97%chance
When will an AI solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem with its proof published in a peer-reviewed journal?<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - <01 Jan 2030)32828 comments3232 forecasters<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - <01 Jan 2030)
Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?11111 comments117117 forecasters
Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.322 comments
By what date will an AI system demonstrate human-level accuracy in extracting data from all types of charts in documents?18 Jun 2027 (27 Dec 2026 - 07 Feb 2028)255 comments1818 forecasters18 Jun 2027 (27 Dec 2026 - 07 Feb 2028)
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?06 Jan 2031 (15 Apr 2028 - Apr 2037)220669669 comments1.9k1.9k forecasters06 Jan 2031 (15 Apr 2028 - Apr 2037)
Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?98% chance262626 comments242242 forecasters98%chance
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?result: yes251515 comments145145 forecastersResolvedYes
When will AI wholly create an original, critically-acclaimed feature film?29 Mar 2031 (04 Oct 2028 - Aug 2035)113939 comments115115 forecasters29 Mar 2031 (04 Oct 2028 - Aug 2035)
Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?322 comments2222 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?622 comments6363 forecasters
If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?25% chance262626 comments342342 forecasters25%chance
How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?20 comments5353 forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?71010 comments4444 forecasters
Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?99% chance241212 comments143143 forecasters99%chance
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?1022 comments5858 forecasters
Will 20 million people follow a new, AI-created religion by the end of 2035?2% chance2121 comments6161 forecasters2%chance