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Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?

80% chance

37

238

238 forecasters

80%chance

When will an AI solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem with its proof published in a peer-reviewed journal?

<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - <01 Jan 2030)

2

27

27 forecasters

<01 Jan 2030

(<01 Jan 2030 - <01 Jan 2030)

When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?

16 Jan 2028 (13 Aug 2026 10:15 - 01 Jul 2031)

96

642

642 forecasters

16 Jan 2028

(13 Aug 2026 10:15 - 01 Jul 2031)

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?

9

13

13 forecasters

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?

13

84

84 forecasters

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

93% chance

5

49

49 forecasters

93%chance

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

8

62

62 forecasters

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

95.8% chance

24

140

140 forecasters

95.8%chance

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

9

42

42 forecasters

AI Military Disempowerment Pro Discussion

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

99% chance

24

145

145 forecasters

99%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30% chance

24

332

332 forecasters

30%chance

Build Your Own Forecasting Bot in 30 Minutes With Our Tutorial Video

8

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

35.2 months (9.76 - 148)

41

348

348 forecasters

35.2 months

(9.76 - 148)

How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?

2

44

44 forecasters

What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?

19

111

111 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

6

58

58 forecasters

Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?

3

22

22 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

10

58

58 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?

98% chance

3

6

6 forecasters

Annulled

Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?

60% chance

29

29 forecasters

60%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28% chance

37

471

471 forecasters

28%chance