13 comments
131 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
95%chance
3 comments
52 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
80%chance
97 comments
184 forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Current estimate
Mar 2032
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
3 comments
12 forecasters
What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
70.6%
3 comments
6 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?
Annulled
21 comments
310 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%chance
36 comments
64 forecasters
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?
13%chance
Key Factors
7 comments
95 forecasters
What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?
For-profit83%
Government20%
Non-profit5%