26 comments
43 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
11%chance
9% this week
43 comments
422 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
25%chance
5% this week
20 comments
287 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
25%chance
7 comments
16 forecasters
In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?
resultNo
34 comments
62 forecasters
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?
12%chance
169 comments
243 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama30%
AI-Dystopia23.7%
Singularia18.9%
7 comments
91 forecasters
What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?
For-profit80%
Government20%
Non-profit5%
2 comments
52 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
80%chance