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$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
66 comments
AI Pathways Tournament
97 comments
183 forecasters

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Current estimate
Sep 2031
36 comments
64 forecasters

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, โ€œGo make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,โ€ before January 1, 2030?

13%chance

Key Factors

๐Ÿค– The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

4
0 comments
44 comments
436 forecasters

Ragnarรถk Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28%chance

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

10
0 comments
AI Progress Essay Contest
21 comments
309 forecasters

Ragnarรถk Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30%chance
7 comments
94 forecasters

What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?

For-profit81%
Government20%
Non-profit5%
2 comments
51 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

80%chance
7 comments
16 forecasters

In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?

resultNo