36 comments
65 forecasters
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?
13%chance
3.3% this week
2 comments
53 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
78%chance
21 comments
303 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%chance
7 comments
16 forecasters
In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?
resultNo
3 comments
6 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?
Annulled
12 comments
131 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
95%chance
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
3 comments
12 forecasters
What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
73.1%
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
1 comment
9 forecasters
What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
82.6%