44 comments
423 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
25%chance
5% this week
20 comments
288 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
25%chance
7 comments
35 forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
7 comments
91 forecasters
What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?
For-profit80%
Government20%
Non-profit5%
34 comments
62 forecasters
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?
12%chance
169 comments
243 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama29.7%
AI-Dystopia24.6%
Singularia18.5%
2 comments
52 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
80%chance
26 comments
43 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
11%chance
3% this week