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8 comments
35 forecasters

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

10
0 comments
AI Progress Essay Contest
36 comments
65 forecasters

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, โ€œGo make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,โ€ before January 1, 2030?

13%chance

Key Factors

๐Ÿค– The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

4
0 comments
21 comments
305 forecasters

Ragnarรถk Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30%chance
7 comments
92 forecasters

What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?

For-profit80%
Government20%
Non-profit5%
44 comments
434 forecasters

Ragnarรถk Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28%chance
2 comments
51 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

78%chance
3 comments
6 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?

Annulled

Another Year of AI Benchmarking: The Plan

11
0 comments
AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2