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$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
66 comments
AI Pathways Tournament

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

3 comments
12 forecasters

What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate
71%
13 comments
132 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%chance
3 comments
6 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?

Annulled
36 comments
64 forecasters

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, โ€œGo make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,โ€ before January 1, 2030?

13%chance

Key Factors

3 comments
52 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

80%chance
21 comments
310 forecasters

Ragnarรถk Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30%chance
44 comments
436 forecasters

Ragnarรถk Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

30%chance
97 comments
185 forecasters

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Current estimate
Aug 2032

๐Ÿค– The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

4
0 comments