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US Democracy Index

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Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%

Google Cloud14.2%

Microsoft Azure14%

6 comments

32 forecasters

Before January 1, 2031, will a unified digital identity protocol enable interaction with at least three different governance frameworks (financial, legal, and civic)?

31%chance

10 comments

18 forecasters

When will a biocomputer be able to perform an SHA-256 hash?

Current estimate

Dec 2045

Contributed by the Foresight Institute community.

1 comment

25 forecasters

Will cryptocurrencies account for at least 1% of U.S. retail payments before January 1, 2035?

87%chance

13 comments

38 forecasters

Will a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?

67%chance

26 comments

118 forecasters

Will Bitcoin move away from proof-of-work before 2035?

5%chance

2 comments

23 forecasters

Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?

72.3%chance

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

Before January 1, 2031, will a unified digital identity protocol enable interaction with at least three different governance frameworks (financial, legal, and civic)?

When will a biocomputer be able to perform an SHA-256 hash?

Will cryptocurrencies account for at least 1% of U.S. retail payments before January 1, 2035?

Will a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?

Will Bitcoin move away from proof-of-work before 2035?

Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?

On the Proliferation of NFTs in the Blue-Chip Contemporary Art Sector

Metaculus x Tezos Collab

Cryptocurrency competition analysis

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

Before January 1, 2031, will a unified digital identity protocol enable interaction with at least three different governance frameworks (financial, legal, and civic)?

When will a biocomputer be able to perform an SHA-256 hash?

Will cryptocurrencies account for at least 1% of U.S. retail payments before January 1, 2035?

Will a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?

Will Bitcoin move away from proof-of-work before 2035?

Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?

On the Proliferation of NFTs in the Blue-Chip Contemporary Art Sector

Metaculus x Tezos Collab

Cryptocurrency competition analysis