What will be the highest average score among a selected subset of VideoGameBench on January 1, 2028?42.6% (20.5 - 68.4)388 comments5757 forecasters42.6% (20.5 - 68.4)
Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?22% chance549191 comments2k2k forecasters22%chance
When will AI complete a campaign of a WarioWare game?24 May 2027 (19 Sep 2026 - 13 Feb 2029)222 comments55 forecasters24 May 2027 (19 Sep 2026 - 13 Feb 2029)
If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?19% chance1066 comments5454 forecastersAmbiguous
When will GPT-4 be announced?18 Mar 2023 17:39 (13 Mar 2023 17:35 - 29 Mar 2023)201717 comments129129 forecasters18 Mar 2023 17:39 (13 Mar 2023 17:35 - 29 Mar 2023)