When will GPT-4 be announced?18 Mar 2023 17:39 (13 Mar 2023 17:35 - 29 Mar 2023)201717 comments129129 forecasters18 Mar 2023 17:39 (13 Mar 2023 17:35 - 29 Mar 2023)
Will quantum effects be widely accepted as responsible for consciousness before 2075?5% chance23030 comments4444 forecasters5%chance
If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?19% chance1066 comments5454 forecastersAmbiguous