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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
36 comments
64 forecasters

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

13%chance

Key Factors

17 comments
129 forecasters

When will GPT-4 be announced?

community
18 Mar 2023 17:39
result
14 Mar 2023 11:00 UTC
46 comments
197 forecasters

Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?

resultNo
12 comments
126 forecasters

In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?

resultYes
2 comments
8 forecasters

What will be the median annual wage for computer and mathematical occupations in the United States in 2025?

Current estimate
114k $
8 comments
31 forecasters

When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?

Current estimate
01 Jun 2029
49 comments
333 forecasters

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

Current estimate
35.6 months

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

7 comments
21 forecasters

What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate
49.7%
4 comments
48 forecasters

When will AI be capable of getting a perfect score on the Putnam Mathematical Competition?

Current estimate
10 Mar 2028
77 comments
94 forecasters

If tested, would GPT-3 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 4th graders?

Ambiguous