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Artificial Intelligence
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36
comments
64
forecasters
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?
13%
chance
Key Factors
Agentic capability timeline
Legal & regulatory environment
Economic model viability
17
comments
129
forecasters
When will GPT-4 be announced?
community
18 Mar 2023 17:39
result
14 Mar 2023 11:00 UTC
46
comments
197
forecasters
Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?
result
No
12
comments
126
forecasters
In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?
result
Yes
2
comments
8
forecasters
What will be the median annual wage for computer and mathematical occupations in the United States in 2025?
Current estimate
114k $
8
comments
31
forecasters
When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?
Current estimate
01 Jun 2029
49
comments
333
forecasters
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
Current estimate
35.6 months
Contributed by the
AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
community.
7
comments
21
forecasters
What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
49.7%
4
comments
48
forecasters
When will AI be capable of getting a perfect score on the Putnam Mathematical Competition?
Current estimate
10 Mar 2028
77
comments
94
forecasters
If tested, would GPT-3 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 4th graders?
Ambiguous
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