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Artificial Intelligence
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46
comments
197
forecasters
Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?
result
No
49
comments
332
forecasters
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
Current estimate
36.4 months
8
comments
31
forecasters
When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?
Current estimate
01 Jun 2029
2
comments
8
forecasters
What will be the median annual wage for computer and mathematical occupations in the United States in 2025?
Current estimate
114k $
Contributed by the
AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
community.
7
comments
21
forecasters
What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
49.7%
4
comments
48
forecasters
When will AI be capable of getting a perfect score on the Putnam Mathematical Competition?
Current estimate
24 Jan 2028
77
comments
94
forecasters
If tested, would GPT-3 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 4th graders?
Ambiguous
Computability and Complexity
16
1
1
comment
Metaculus Journal Archives
Elliptic Curves, Diophantine Equations, and Cryptography
12
0
comments
57
comments
792
forecasters
Will the "silver" Turing Test be passed by 2026?
60%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
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