Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

🗳️

US Democracy Index

❓

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

≤5 nm99%

≤3 nm90%

≤2 nm50%

1 comment

17 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%

Naura35%

AMEC30%

9 comments

18 forecasters

Will a developed country experience >20% yearly GDP growth before 2031?

2%chance

condition

33 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

2 comments

28 forecasters

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, how much will China's real GDP (PPP) grow over the next 4 quarters?

Current estimate

-4.05%

50 comments

412 forecasters

Will China's GDP exceed the United States' GDP in any year before 2041?

58%chance

3 comments

12 forecasters

What will be the compound annual growth rate percentage of Chinese GDP (PPP) from 2022 to 2032?

Current estimate

4.81%

condition

Yuan a Top 3 Global Currency

11 forecasters

if yes

if no

US-China war before 2035?

0 comments

11 forecasters

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

14 comments

131 forecasters

Will China's GDP Overtake the US Before 2030?

9.2%chance

5 comments

2 forecasters

What will be the Trade Openness Index for China in the following years?

204046.3

2030>38

202537.1

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

Will a developed country experience >20% yearly GDP growth before 2031?

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, how much will China's real GDP (PPP) grow over the next 4 quarters?

Will China's GDP exceed the United States' GDP in any year before 2041?

What will be the compound annual growth rate percentage of Chinese GDP (PPP) from 2022 to 2032?

Yuan a Top 3 Global Currency

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Will China's GDP Overtake the US Before 2030?

What will be the Trade Openness Index for China in the following years?

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

Will a developed country experience >20% yearly GDP growth before 2031?

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, how much will China's real GDP (PPP) grow over the next 4 quarters?

Will China's GDP exceed the United States' GDP in any year before 2041?

What will be the compound annual growth rate percentage of Chinese GDP (PPP) from 2022 to 2032?

Yuan a Top 3 Global Currency

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Will China's GDP Overtake the US Before 2030?

What will be the Trade Openness Index for China in the following years?