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US Democracy Index

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Will a developed country experience >20% yearly GDP growth before 2031?

2%chance

condition

33 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

1 comment

18 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%

Naura35%

Nata30%

10 comments

39 forecasters

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

≤5 nm99%

≤3 nm90%

≤2 nm47%

4 comments

36 forecasters

When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?

Current estimate

Mar 2060

3 comments

12 forecasters

What will be the compound annual growth rate percentage of Chinese GDP (PPP) from 2022 to 2032?

Current estimate

4.81%

condition

Yuan a Top 3 Global Currency

10 forecasters

if yes

if no

US-China war before 2035?

0 comments

10 forecasters

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

2 comments

30 forecasters

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, how much will China's real GDP (PPP) grow over the next 4 quarters?

Current estimate

-5.23%

5 comments

2 forecasters

What will be the Trade Openness Index for China in the following years?

204046.3

2030>38

202537.1

39 comments

114 forecasters

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

Current estimate

Dec 2055

Will a developed country experience >20% yearly GDP growth before 2031?

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?

What will be the compound annual growth rate percentage of Chinese GDP (PPP) from 2022 to 2032?

Yuan a Top 3 Global Currency

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, how much will China's real GDP (PPP) grow over the next 4 quarters?

What will be the Trade Openness Index for China in the following years?

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

Will a developed country experience >20% yearly GDP growth before 2031?

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?

What will be the compound annual growth rate percentage of Chinese GDP (PPP) from 2022 to 2032?

Yuan a Top 3 Global Currency

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, how much will China's real GDP (PPP) grow over the next 4 quarters?

What will be the Trade Openness Index for China in the following years?

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?