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US Democracy Index

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Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?

95%chance

40% this week

19 comments

94 forecasters

Will a recession begin in the United States in the following years?

7 comments

35 forecasters

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

21%chance

2 comments

324 forecasters

Will the US dollar continuously remain >50% of global foreign currency exchange reserves through Q3 2028?

70%chance

0 comments

47 forecasters

Will the U.S. presidential administration alter or delay the public release of a major federal economic indicator in the following years?

23 comments

29 forecasters

What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023?

UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%result: Yes

UR < 4.5%, core PCE < 3%result: No

UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%result: No

12 comments

27 forecasters

14 forecasters

15 comments

23 forecasters

What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years?

3 comments

52 forecasters

Will "stagflation" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the "misery index" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months?

10%chance

Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?

Will a recession begin in the United States in the following years?

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

Will the US dollar continuously remain >50% of global foreign currency exchange reserves through Q3 2028?

Will the U.S. presidential administration alter or delay the public release of a major federal economic indicator in the following years?

What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023?

What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years?

US unemployment rate 10% before 2031?

Civil Unrest or Rioting in US Before 2031?

Civil Unrest or Rioting in US Before 2031?

What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years?

Will "stagflation" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the "misery index" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months?

Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?

Will a recession begin in the United States in the following years?

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

Will the US dollar continuously remain >50% of global foreign currency exchange reserves through Q3 2028?

Will the U.S. presidential administration alter or delay the public release of a major federal economic indicator in the following years?

What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023?

What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years?

US unemployment rate 10% before 2031?

Civil Unrest or Rioting in US Before 2031?

Civil Unrest or Rioting in US Before 2031?

What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years?

Will "stagflation" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the "misery index" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months?