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US Democracy Index

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What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025?

condition

13 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

0 comments

32 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%

Google Cloud12%

Amazon Web Services11%

1 comment

9 forecasters

Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?

15%chance

22.4% this week

3 comments

41 forecasters

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Current estimate

61.3%

Key Factors

condition

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

33 forecasters

if yes

if no

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

50%

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

33 forecasters

18 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%

Naura35%

Nata30%

11 comments

116 forecasters

Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?

95%chance

6 comments

13 forecasters

What will be China's share of rare earth production in 2030?

Current estimate

51.5%

12 comments

31 forecasters

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam85%

Singaporeresult: Yes

Taiwan70%

What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025?

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?

What will be China's share of rare earth production in 2030?

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025?

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?

What will be China's share of rare earth production in 2030?

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?