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3 comments
37 forecasters

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Current estimate
62.7%
0 comments
31 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%
Google Cloud14.2%
Microsoft Azure14%
4 comments
52 forecasters

On November 1, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Chinese yuan?

Current estimate
7.12 CNY per USD
6 comments
13 forecasters

What will be China's share of rare earth production in 2030?

Current estimate
51.5%

AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models

0 comments
AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models
4 comments
29 forecasters

How many zero emission light vehicles will be available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) in the United States for the following model years?

19 comments
94 forecasters

Will a recession begin in the United States in the following years?

1 comment
17 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%
Naura35%
AMEC30%
12 comments
64 forecasters

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam85%
Singaporeresult: Yes
Taiwan70%
2 comments
48 forecasters

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

33%chance