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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index
7
0
comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
0
comments
7
forecasters
Will the U.S. presidential administration alter or delay the public release of a major federal economic indicator in the following years?
0
comments
92
forecasters
Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?
30%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
1
comment
52
forecasters
What will be the value of "the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for the US" on 2025-08-28?
community
220 Index
result
243.9 Index
62
comments
43
forecasters
What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months?
23
comments
29
forecasters
What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023?
UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%
result:
Yes
UR < 4.5%, core PCE < 3%
result:
No
UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%
result:
No
1 other
7
comments
34
forecasters
Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?
22%
chance
2
comments
28
forecasters
Will US imports from Brazil in November 2025 exceed those of November 2024?
30%
chance
10%
this week
0
comments
8
forecasters
What will net outlays by the US government be in 2028 as a percentage of GDP?
Current estimate
23.2%
5
comments
34
forecasters
What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?
community
0.485
result
0.3
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