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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

14
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
0 comments
7 forecasters

Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. presidential elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?

0 comments
9 forecasters

Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?

0 comments
6 forecasters

Will two or more losing major-party candidates for governor or U.S. Senator in competitive races refuse to concede defeat in the following general elections?

0 comments
5 forecasters

In the following U.S. presidential elections, will any state fail to submit a slate of electoral votes to Congress by the safe harbor deadline?

2 comments
50 forecasters

Who will be elected governor of New Jersey in 2025?

The Democratic Party candidate (Mikie Sherrill)81%
The Republican Party candidate (Jack Ciattarelli)18%
Other1%
2 comments
54 forecasters

Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?

30%chance
5% this week
20 comments
65 forecasters

Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election?

Angela Rayner25%
Keir Starmer23%
Andy Burnham15%
79 comments
63 forecasters

What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?

community
19.9
result
More than 30
65 comments
87 forecasters

Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election?

Javier Mileiresult: Yes
Sergio Massaresult: No
Patricia Bullrichresult: No