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The 2026 US Midterms Tracker is Live!

8
0 comments

Before August 2026, will the government of Alberta officially announce a date for an independence referendum?

result: yes

1
44 comments
11
11 forecasters
ResolvedYes

Will the 2026 Alberta independence referendum pass?

4% chance

4
0 comments
33
33 forecasters
4%chance

When will Canada become a full member state of the European Union?

Oct 2073 (Jul 2049 - >2100)

3
44 comments
7
7 forecasters
Oct 2073
(Jul 2049 - >2100)

Will the U.S. annex any part of Canada before June 3, 2072?

5% chance

3
1010 comments
35
35 forecasters
5%chance

How many seats will each party win in the Next Australian federal election (2028)

1
33 comments
3
3 forecasters

Will at least part of Canada become a U.S. state before January 21, 2033?

0.5% chance

3
22 comments
38
38 forecasters
0.5%chance

Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?

result: yes

3
66 comments
61
61 forecasters
ResolvedYes

Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?

result: no

10
3434 comments
145
145 forecasters
ResolvedNo

How many seats in the Canadian House of Commons will these parties win in the 2025 federal election?

5
88 comments
44
44 forecasters

Before July 1, 2025, will the government of Alberta officially announce a date for an independence referendum?

result: no

8787 comments
80
80 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Will the Conservative Party win the popular vote in the 2025 Canadian federal election?

result: no

4040 comments
35
35 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Will the Liberal Party win 172 or more seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election?

result: no

4040 comments
34
34 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Will Bloc Quรฉbรฉcois win more seats in Quebec than the Conservative Party?

result: yes

3838 comments
36
36 forecasters
ResolvedYes

Will Canada revoke Elon Musk's citizenship before April 1, 2025?

result: no

8282 comments
31
31 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Will Canada announce a federal election before April 1, 2025?

result: yes

8484 comments
28
28 forecasters
ResolvedYes

Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?

7979 comments
25
25 forecasters

Will Justin Trudeau cease to be Prime Minister of Canada before April 1, 2025?

result: yes

7070 comments
19
19 forecasters
ResolvedYes

Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?

6
2929 comments
1.1k
1.1k forecasters

Will Ontario Premier Doug Ford call an early provincial election for 2025?

result: yes

33 comments
3
3 forecasters
ResolvedYes

Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election?

21
2727 comments
161
161 forecasters

Before Jan 1, 2025, will Ontario Premier Doug Ford call an early provincial election scheduled for 2025?

result: no

5353 comments
29
29 forecasters
ResolvedNo