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US Democracy Index

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Who will be elected governor of New Jersey in 2025?

The Democratic Party candidate (Mikie Sherrill)67.1%

The Republican Party candidate (Jack Ciattarelli)31.9%

Other1%

95 comments

94 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?"?

resultNo

0 comments

94 forecasters

Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?

Both elections60.5%

Only Virginia24.2%

Only New Jersey9.5%

This question is closed for forecasting.

418 comments

1.2k forecasters

Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Nikki Haleyresult: No

Ron DeSantisresult: No

3.9k comments

3.6k forecasters

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Gretchen Whitmerresult: No

Pete Buttigiegresult: No

82 comments

235 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes

Kamala Harris (D)result: No

Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled

6 comments

55 forecasters

Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?

resultYes

19 comments

80 forecasters

Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?

Both elections81.9%

Only Virginia13%

Only New Jersey3%

584 comments

1.2k forecasters

Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Kamala Harrisresult: Yes

Joe Bidenresult: No

Gavin Newsomresult: No

0 comments

88 forecasters

Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.