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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

13
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
0 comments
99 forecasters

Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?

37.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
5 forecasters

Will the U.S. government seek to revoke a naturalized citizen's citizenship for post-naturalization conduct in the following years?

Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

4
1010 comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025
0 comments
3 forecasters

Will a U.S. state legislative or congressional map be used for the following general elections with a total population deviation between districts of ≥12%?

1 comment
36 forecasters

Will Alassane Ouattara win 80% or more of the first round vote in the 2025 presidential election of Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire)?

Current estimate
Revealed tomorrow
2 comments
8 forecasters

Who will win the UK Labour Party's Deputy Leadership election in 2025?

Bridget PhillipsonUpcoming
Lucy PowellUpcoming
Someone elseUpcoming
0 comments
7 forecasters

Will senior DOJ leaders override normal procedures to open or accelerate a case against a high-profile presidential opponent or critic in the following years?

0 comments
6 forecasters

Will any of these listed US federal government officials be out of their position before October 1, 2025?

Current estimate
Revealed in 2 days
0 comments
2 forecasters

Will California's Proposition 50 (allowing redistricting of House seats) pass in the 2025 election?

Current estimate
Revealed in 3 days