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US Democracy Index

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Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

22.8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

16 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

1 comment

18 forecasters

Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?

1 comment

5 forecasters

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 3 days

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?

25%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

5 comments

6 forecasters

Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025? (re-opened question)

99%chance

18% today

0 comments

97 forecasters

What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (November)

Latest estimate

250

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

106 forecasters

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

4 forecasters

Before January 1, 2026, will the Labour Party poll 4th place or worse in the UK, according to Politico's average?

40%chance

28% today