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US Democracy Index

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Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

26 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

0 comments

16 forecasters

Will the habeas corpus be suspended for any group of people within the United States in any of the following years?

0 comments

87 forecasters

Will Mikie Sherrill be officially certified as the winner of New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial election by December 31, 2025?

97%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment

5 forecasters

Labour Party leadership election before 2027?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 3 days

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4 forecasters

What will the Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot (for the 2026 midterms) on December 2, 2025?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 2 days

1 comment

19 forecasters

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

48%chance

18% this week

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2 forecasters

Will George Conway, vocal critic of Donald Trump, announce a run for the US Congress before April 2, 2026?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 3 days

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5 forecasters

[Short Fuse] Will Donald Trump win the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 4 days

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9 forecasters

What will be Donald Trump's approval rating be on November 25, 2025?

Current estimate

Revealed

tomorrow